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St James's Palace Tips – Royal Ascot 2021

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St James' Palace Stakes tips

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When is the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot?

Royal Ascot Tuesday 15th June 4.20pm

The St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) 

Age: 3yo colts 

Distance: 1 Mile

Weights – 9st

Prize: £538,750

History of the St James's Palace Stakes race at Royal Ascot
This Grade 1 race was first run in 1834 and named after the royal Tudor residence, St James Palace.  The first race was allowed a walkover when Plenipotentiary was the only entrant in the race.  Jumping forward to 1971, the race was graded as a Grade 2 race and it wasn’t until 1988 that it was upgraded to a Grade 1.

The St James Palace Stakes is contested by the leading three-year-old colts and competitors have often run in the 2000 Guineas, the most notable winner in recent years was the great Frankel in 2011 under Tom Queally.

The most successful jockey has been Michael Kinane with 6 wins between 1982 and 2007.

The trainer with the most wins is Aidan O’Brien with 8 winners so far the most recent being last year’s winner Circus Maximus.

Royal Ascot St James's Palace Stakes Trends and Statistics
Here are the St James's Palace Stakes 12 year Trends and Statistics:

  • Age – Race restricted to three-year-olds.
  • Sex – Race restricted to colts.
  • Country – Six of the last twelve winners were bred in Ireland, five in Great Britain and one in the USA. Nine of the last twelve winners have had an Irish sire.
  • Colour – Eight of the last twelve winners have been bay (b), two were chestnut (ch) and one each grey (gr) and brown (br).
  • Starting Price (SP) – Ten of the last twelve winners have returned a SP of 6/1 or less.
  • Starting Price Rank – Ten of the last twelve winners have been in the top three in the betting with eight of them starting favourite. The other four were all in the first five in the betting at the off.
  • Headgear – Eleven of the last twelve winners wore no headgear. The other one was in first-time blinkers.
  • Draw – Nine of the last twelve winners have been drawn in stall 7 or lower. The other one came from stall 15 but there has only been one race in the last twelve years with more than twelve runners.
  • Last Run Form – Seven of the last twelve winners won their most recent race.
  • Days since last run – All of the last twelve winners had raced within the last 45 days.
  • Course Form – Only four of the last twelve winners had a previous run at Ascot and all four had won at the course.
  • Distance Form – Eleven of the last twelve winners had at least one previous run over one mile and at least one previous win over one mile.
  • Flat Form – All of the last twelve winners had at least three previous flat runs and eleven of them had at least two previous flat wins.
  • Official Rating – Only ten of the last twelve winners had a BHA rating all of them were rated between 109 and 130.
  • Group Wins – Nine of the last twelve winners had won at least a Group 3 race and eight of them had won a Group 1.
  • Current Season Form – Eleven of the last twelve winners had at least two runs and at least one win in the current season.
Recent Winners of The St James's Palace Stakes
DateGoingRunnersWinnerAgeJockey (Clm)TrainerOddsDays
Good To Firm1337/224d
Good To Soft734/114d
Good11310/117d
Good To Firm1039/426d
Good To Firm835/245d
Soft736/124d
Good To Firm538/1524d
Good738/1124d
Good935/417d
Good To Soft1639/1255d
Good9330/10045d
Good9311/424d
Good To Firm1035/624d
Good To Firm834/724d
Good To Firm838/1276d
Good To Firm1132/124d
Good To Firm837/4241d
Good To Firm1139/224d
Good To Firm1138/124d
Good934/524d
Good1138/124d
Good To Firm1137/224d
Good To Firm1132/1
Good To Soft834/134d
Good8311/245d

 

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What's Our St James's Palace Stakes Tips for Royal Ascot?

We've been studying the cards, form, stats, trends and more for the St James' Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, and here's our thoughts ahead of the race:

The 3-year-old’s go to post for the St James’s Palace Stakes and the market is currently headed by the top three for the 2,000 Guineas. Poetic Flare was somewhat a shock 16/1 winner on the day with all Aiden O’Brien horses massively underperforming in that race. Jim Bolger has indicated this is their main target and it might be worth noting that the sire of Poetic Flare (Dawn Approach) won this race back in 2013.

Master of the Seas finished second in the 2000 Guineas for Charlie Appleby and of the front three I would upgrade the performance of this horse the most. They were held up in the Guineas and made great headway from around halfway and just failed to get past Poetic Flare. In that race the pace did hold up with most of the prominent racers finishing best, so Master of the Seas performed really well to come from behind.

Lucky Vega finished third in that race and considering that was their first run since last September it was a great training performance from Jessica Harrington. They ran a little keenly in the early stages but after settling, he travelled really well and stayed on well towards the finish, also closing in on the front two.

From a punting perspective, Poetic Flare and Master of the Seas seem a little short at 4/1 now and of the three I would have to recommend Lucky Vega at 7/1 instead. The front two had race fitness on their side in the Guineas, leaving Lucky Vega with more scope for progress, and the Jessica Harrington team are very optimistic about their chances.

Of the rest in the field one that appeals at a bigger each way price is Highland Avenue for Charlie Appleby. They won the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket, beating stablemate Secret Protector and the pair beat everything else by 7 lengths or more. That was over 1m 1f and James Doyle came out after the race saying they will probably go back in distance with them. That sets them up perfectly for a crack at this race and a 20/1 each way price looks very appealing.

Our Antepost Bet is:

  • 1pt each way Lucky Vega 7/1
  • 0.5pts each way Highland Avenue 20/1

On the day:

POETIC FLARE 4.20 – Ascot (4/1) – Emulated his sire with a victory in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Has been kept busy since his win then and has the best form in the book so looks the one to beat.

We are on for a treat here with last years top 2-year-old PINATUBO and WICHITA who were third and second in the 2000 Guineas both priced up at around 7/4 the race could turn out to be between them. The main threats to that pair are THREAT and PALACE PIER.

Keith's final choice

15:00 POSITIVE 16/1 – Below par when sixth in the Dewhurst won by PINATUBO. Was only a nose behind subsequent 2000 Guineas winner KAMEKO prior to that. Can out run these odds.

How it fared

POSITIVE 4TH – Outpaced in the closing stages and finished 5 lengths behind the first three home, PALACE PIER, PINATUBO and WICHITA.

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Leading Contenders

TOO DARN HOT 6/4 – The top two-year-old last term winning all his races including the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. Had a delayed start to his season missing both the Greenham and the 2000 Guineas due to heat in a splint bone. Second in the Dante at York last time when he clearly didn’t stay the trip.

MAGNA GRECIA 7/4 – Dual Group 1 winner including the 2000 Guineas. Only defeat came on fast going last season. Massive player if there is a little juice in the ground.

SKARDU 6/1 – Craven stakes winner in April but was over four lengths behind MAGNA GRECIA in the Guineas so well held on that performance

CALYX 10/1 – Has won all three races to date but unraced at further than six furlongs. May find stamina limitations over this mile trip.

Conclusion

TOO DARN HOT 6/4 found things tough in the Dante but this drop back to a mile will put his career back on track.

Who is our Antepost Tipster for Royal Ascot?

Our Royal Ascot Antepost tips is brought to you by one of our panel of professional tipsters.  Meet Aaron Gibbons who runs the AG Tips service on Tipsterr.

Aaron is a professional horse racing tipster specialising mainly in UK and Irish horse racing. I use my own methods to price up horse races independently and compare those prices against the market to identify the best each way value. I launched my AG Tips service on Tipstrr back in June 2019, since when I have provided over 1400 selections that have produced an overall long-term profit of 335 units, equating to a 23.5% ROI.

What our members tipped in the St James's Palace Stakes

Each day we ask our members to select their Pick 6, their NAP for each race of the day.  We then collate all the picks, and present the top selections to our VIP members.  Here's how it went for the St James's Palace Stakes:

Race Four | 4:20pm – St James's Palace Stakes

It's BATTLEGROUND that claims the most here with 20.7% of your Pick 6 selections.
One of today's Lucky 15 picks, POETIC FLARE, next best with a decent 16.7%.  MOSTAHDAF another worthy mention with 16.3%.

The biggest vote of confidence of the day from your selections goes to Pinatubo with 48.5% of your selections here. Frankie on Palace Pier way back in second with 27.3% and Wichita the only contender here with 11.6% of the Pick6+2 selections.

Too Darn Hot looks to be too hot here with over 40% of the votes, but a fair bit of love for Phoenix of Spain too

Royal Ascot St James's Palace Stakes Results

1 Poetic Flare 7/2F
2 Lucky Vega 4/1
3 Battleground 11/1
13 ran

1 Palace Pier 4/1
2 Pinatubo 11/8F
3 Wichita 9/4
7 ran

1 Circus Maximus 10/1
2 King Of Comedy 4/1
3 Too Darn Hot 2/1F
11 ran Distances: nk, ¾l, ½l
Time: 1m 39.90s (slow by 0.90s)

Our verdict:
What a race! Keeping us on the edge of our seats until the finish line, Circus Maximus kept with the front runners until taking the lead from Fox Champion. Then four challengers try to take the lead, however, If it was a little longer, King of Comedy might have snatched it, but Circus Maximus held on to give the Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore combination a second win of the opening day of Royal Ascot 2019 in the St James's Palace Stakes.

St Jamess Palace Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Rnd)
Distance: 1m (1753 yards +5 yards rails adjustment) Prize (winner): £198485 Dir: Right Handed
Runners: 13    Going: Good To Firm    Class: Class 1 Group 1    Age Restrictions: 3yo
Winners Time: 1 mins 37.40s   Avg OR: 111     Median OR: 110     Stalls: Inside

NoPlaceDist BtStallHorseAgeORTrainerJockey (Claim)OddsBFBFP
111st7Poetic Flare (IRE)3118Bolger, J SManning, K J7/2 (Fav)5.072.08
tracked leaders, led over 1f out, ridden entering final furlong, soon clear, impressive BF IP MIN 1.01 BF IP MAX 5.3
62nd4.2511Lucky Vega (IRE)3117Harrington, Mrs JohnFoley, Shane4/15.802.24
raced wide close up, pushed along to chase winner over 1f out, kept on one pace BF IP MIN 5 BF IP MAX 1000
13rdNK2Battleground (USA)3111OBrien, A PMoore, Ryan11/116.775.00
in touch, headway 2f out, ridden and kept on one pace final furlong BF IP MIN 11 BF IP MAX 120
74th0.59Maximal3107Stoute, Sir MichaelKeane, C T12/113.524.71
held up, headway over 1f out, ridden and kept on one pace BF IP MIN 2.72 BF IP MAX 1000
35th0.758Chindit (IRE)3113Hannon (Jnr), RichardDobbs, Pat11/26.912.49
towards rear, pushed along and headway over 1f out, ridden and one pace final furlong BF IP MIN 5.5 BF IP MAX 550
46th1.2512Highland Avenue (IRE)3110Appleby, CharlieBuick, William15/211.373.50
in rear, wide and headway over 1f out, ridden and no impression final furlong BF IP MIN 3.7 BF IP MAX 1000
127th36Thunder Moon (IRE)3116OBrien, Joseph PatrickDettori, L12/114.505.05
towards rear, pushed along 2f out, never a factor BF IP MIN 13.5 BF IP MAX 1000
98th1.7510Naamoos (FR)3110Johnston, MCurtis, B A20/125.006.33
tracked clear leader, closed to lead approaching 2f out, edged right and headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong BF IP MIN 18 BF IP MAX 1000
139thSH4Wembley (IRE)3113OBrien, A PHeffernan, J A33/149.5610.00
slow into stride, held up, pushed along 2f out, never a factor BF IP MIN 29 BF IP MAX 900
510thHD5La Barrosa (IRE)3108Appleby, CharlieDoyle, James16/121.075.86
in rear, never on terms BF IP MIN 19.5 BF IP MAX 1000
211th3.513Bullace3106Beckett, R MCrouch, Hector33/142.139.97
raced wide towards rear, pushed along 3f out, never a factor BF IP MIN 38 BF IP MAX 1000
812th1.751Mostahdaf (IRE)3108Gosden, John and ThadyCrowley, Jim10/113.504.38
close up, effort when short of room and not clear run entering final 2f, weakened final furlong BF IP MIN 6.2 BF IP MAX 950
1013th193Ontario (IRE)3107OBrien, A PLordan, W M125/1170.0038.00
led and soon clear, reduced lead 3f out, headed approaching 2f out, soon weakened BF IP MIN 46 BF IP MAX 1000

St Jamess Palace Stakes (Group 1)
Distance: 1m (1753 yards) Prize (winner): £148000 Dir: Right Handed
Runners: 7    Going: Good To Soft    Class: Class 1 Group 1    Age Restrictions: 3yo
Winners Time: 1 mins 42.38s   Avg OR: 115     Median OR: 114     Stalls: Inside

NoPlaceDist BtStallHorseAgeORTrainerJockey (Claim)OddsBFBFP
21st6Palace Pier3109Gosden, John and ThadyDettori, L4/17.783.46
dwelt, held up in last pair, headway and 5 wide on home turn, chased leaders over 2f out, challenged 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong to lead towards finish, won going away BF IP MIN 1.01 BF IP MAX 11
32nd12Pinatubo (IRE)3126Appleby, CharlieBuick, William11/8 (Fav)2.461.53
held up in rear, angled out and good headway between horses over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, soon ridden to challenge, led 100 yards out, headed and no extra towards finish BF IP MIN 1.26 BF IP MAX 1000
73rdHD7Wichita (IRE)3118OBrien, A PMoore, Ryan9/43.401.76
raced wide early, tracked leader until went on 6f out, pushed along and joined 2f out, ridden and headed 100 yards out, no extra towards finish BF IP MIN 2.1 BF IP MAX 1000
44th5.53Positive3113Cox, C GKirby, Adam14/113.504.90
raced keenly in 5th, headway chasing leaders 3f out, hung right over 2f out, ridden and outpaced inside final 2f, plugged on and went remote 4th post BF IP MIN 6.6 BF IP MAX 1000
65thNSE4Threat (IRE)3114Hannon (Jnr), RichardMurphy, Oisin20/125.927.60
forced to race wide, tracked leaders, went 2nd over 3f out, every chance 2f out, ridden and lost 2nd over 1f out, weakened final furlong, lost remote 4th post BF IP MIN 7.2 BF IP MAX 1000
16th2.51Arizona (IRE)3116OBrien, A PLevey, S M25/123.827.52
tracked leaders on inside, weakened inside final 2f BF IP MIN 16 BF IP MAX 1000
57th85Royal Dornoch (IRE)3110OBrien, A PMarquand, Tom50/180.3021.00
slight lead 2f, tracked leader, pushed along halfway, lost 2nd over 3f out, weakened and behind over 2f out BF IP MIN 42 BF IP MAX 1000

St Jamess Palace Stakes (Group 1)
Distance: 1m (1753 yards +5 yards rails adjustment) Prize (winner): £305525 Dir: Right Handed
Runners: 11    Going: Good    Class: Class 1 Group 1    Age Restrictions: 3yo
Winners Time: 1 mins 39.90s   Avg OR: 101     Median OR: 110     Stalls: Inside

NoPlaceDist BtStallHorseAgeORTrainerJockey (Claim)OddsBFBFP
21st1Circus Maximus (IRE)3110OBrien, A PMoore, Ryan10/112.503.34
tracked leader, pushed along over 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and hung left and headed briefly inside final furlong, ran on BF IP MIN 1.01 BF IP MAX 20
42ndNK5King Of Comedy (IRE)3111Gosden, John and ThadyKirby, Adam4/15.602.22
towards rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, ran on strongly inside final furlong, not reach winner BF IP MIN 4.8 BF IP MAX 640
103rd0.752Too Darn Hot3120Gosden, John and ThadyDettori, L2/1 (Fav)3.451.46
close up, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead briefly inside final furlong when hung left, no extra close home BF IP MIN 1.33 BF IP MAX 1000
84th0.53Skardu3111Haggas, W JDoyle, James7/19.382.85
held up, headway 2f out, switched left over 1f out, stayed on towards finish BF IP MIN 7 BF IP MAX 1000
75th26Shaman (IRE)3114Laffon-Parias, CGuyon, Maxime14/117.274.00
raced wide held up, pushed along 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, nearest finish BF IP MIN 15.5 BF IP MAX 1000
56thNK7Phoenix Of Spain (IRE)3120Hills, CharlesSpencer, Jamie5/24.001.66
tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace BF IP MIN 1.86 BF IP MAX 1000
37th111Fox Champion (IRE)3110Hannon (Jnr), RichardSousa, Silvestre De25/150.377.40
led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong BF IP MIN 26 BF IP MAX 1000
118th0.510Van Beethoven (CAN)3107OBrien, A POBrien, Donnacha66/1135.8619.00
towards rear, ridden 2f out, never a factor BF IP MIN 80 BF IP MAX 1000
69th2.54Royal Marine (IRE)3109Suroor, Saeed BinSoumillon, C33/174.8611.00
in touch, headway over 2f out, ridden and weakened final furlong BF IP MIN 21 BF IP MAX 1000
110th3.58Bell Rock30Balding, A MMurphy, Oisin33/180.6212.50
raced wide close up, ridden and weakened over 2f out BF IP MIN 50 BF IP MAX 1000
911th59The Irish Rover (IRE)399OBrien, A PHeffernan, J A100/1795.1374.80
slow into stride always in rear BF IP MIN 500 BF IP MAX 1000

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