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York Ebor Festival Races

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Ebor Festival Races

Juddemonte International Stakes Tips

Wednesday 19th August – Juddmonte International

Ranked in 2012 as the best thoroughbred horse race in the world, the Juddmonte International Stakes is the richest race of the season at York Racecourse.  With a prize fund of over £1m, this race is open all horses aged 3 years and over.  The distance is 1 mile, 2 furlongs and 56 yards and is run on a left-handed track.

Leading trainers for this race is currently shared between Sir Michael Stoute and Aidan O'Brien who have 6 winners a piece.  Lester Piggott and Frankie Dettori are the top jockeys for the International Stakes who have notched up 5 winners.  Three horses have won this race twice, Dahlia in 1974/75, Ezzoud in 1993/94 and Halling in 1995/96.  The mighty Japan won this race last year, will he manage it again to join these leading horses?

12 Year Trends and Stats

2007 and 2009 – 2019 (2008 race was run at Newmarket)

• Age – Six of the twelve winners were aged three, four were four and one each five & six.
• Sex – Eleven of the twelve winners were entires nine of those colts (aged 3 or 4) and two were older horses.  There have however only been two fillies in the race in the 12 years featured and one of them won as it was 50/1 the ROI for fillies is 2450% over the twelve years.
• Country – Six of the last twelve winners were bred in Ireland, four in Great Britain and two in USA.
• Colour – Eight of the last twelve winners were bay (b), two were chestnut (ch) one was grey (gr) and the other one was bay / brown (b/br).
• Starting Price (SP) – Eleven of the last twelve winners returned a SP of 7/1 or less.
• Starting Price Rank – Six of the last twelve winners started as the SP favourite. Ten of them came from the first three in the betting.
• Headgear – None of the last twelve winners any headgear.
• Draw – All of the last twelve winners were drawn in stall 7 or lower.
• Days Since Last Run – All of the last twelve winners had run between 18 and 74 days ago.
• Last Run Form – Seven of the last twelve runners had won on their previous start and all twelve had finished in the first three last time.
• Course Form – Four of the last twelve winners had previously run at York. Three of them had won at the course.
• Distance Form – Ten of the last twelve winners had run at 1m 2f – 1m 3f in the past and six of those had won at the trip.
• Flat Form – All of the last twelve winners had run at least six times in the past and won at least three times.
• Official Rating – Eleven of the last twelve winners had an official rating of between 117 or higher.
• Group Wins – All of the last twelve winners had won at least one Group race previously. Eleven of them had won a Group 1 race.
• Current Season Form – Eleven of the twelve winners had run at least three times in the current season and won at least twice in the season.

Recent Winners of Juddmonte International Stakes

Our Juddmonte International Stakes Tips

At the final declaration stage, this race had cut up to just 6 runners totally negating the effects of the draw which generally has some bearing on the result of the race.

GHAIYYATH is the current market leader and ticks plenty of boxes the concern for him though is the rain as he isn't as effective with cut in the ground so would want things to dry up.

KAMEKO is eliminated as he misses a couple of key stats having never run at this distance and did not finish in the first three last time.

MAGICAL is interesting having a similar profile to GHAIYYATH but he has won on soft going so rain is not a worry here.

LORD NORTH also ticks plenty of boxes, the concern here is that he has been gelded and no gelding has won this in the last 12 years.

ASPETAR can't be totally discounted as he won over course and distance last time and has a Group 1 win on his CV.

ROSE OF KILDARE is a complete dark horse, she is in receipt of sex and age allowances and at 66/1 the bookies have written her off. BUT and it is a big but, they made the same mistake with ARABIAN QUEEN in 2015 and she came in at 50/1.

How we faired

Keith's day of the race message for the 2020 Juddmonte International was:

LORD NORTH 15:15 York 7/2 – This is a fantastic renewal of the Juddmont International and a case can be made for most of the runners. The way I see the race panning out is the front running GHAIYYATH taking them along and LORD NORTH making headway off the back of that strong pace to take things up in the final furlong.

Result

As expected GHAIYYATH took the initiative and made the running, he quickly saw off the attention of ROSE OF KIDARE. LORD NORTH as expected was held up off the pace and began to make headway half a mile from home, he chased the winner but was always held, he lost second to MAGICAL 1 furlong out, the mare was travelling better on the rain-softened ground but she had no chance with GHAIYYATH who won well making every yard.  LORD NORTH lost a shoe during the race.

1st 2. Ghaiyyath 11/8F

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Yorkshire Oaks Tips

Thursday 20th August – Ladies Day

Ladies Day and this is the race for the ladies!  Open to mares and fillies the Yorkshire Oaks is the feature race of day two at the Ebor Festival.  Horses must be aged three years and over, and with a prize purse of £425,000 there's a close to quarter of a £million up for grabs by the winner.

Horses who enter the Yorkshire Oaks have often run The Epsom Oaks before, with Enable the last horse who won both races in 2017; Enable also holds the most successful horse in the race (along with Only Royale and Islington) having won the race twice, in 2017 and again last year.

We have a stand out leading jockey, but have to head back to the 1800's to find them, it's Fred Archer who has 8 wins under his belt.  Leading trainers is shared amongst the past and the current trainers, with Mathew Dawson with winners between 1875 and 1886) and Sir Michael Stoute with winners spanning from 1975 to 2004 – each of them having 9 wins!

Darley Yorkshire Oaks 12 Year Stats and Trends

2007 and 2009 – 2019 (2008 race was run at Newmarket)

• Age – Seven of the twelve winners were aged three, four were four and one was five.
• Sex – Restricted to fillies and mares. 
• Country – Five of the last twelve winners were bred in Ireland, five in Great Britain and two in the USA.
• Colour – Nine of the last twelve winners were bay (b), one was chestnut (ch) one was grey / roan (gr/ro) and the other one was bay / brown (b/br).
• Starting Price (SP) – All of the last twelve winners returned a SP of 8/1 or less.
• Starting Price Rank – Six of the last twelve winners started as the SP favourite and four as second favourite. All of them came from the first four in the betting.
• Headgear – None of the last twelve winners any headgear. 
• Draw – Nine of the last twelve winners were drawn between stalls 4 and 8.
• Days Since Last Run – All of the last twelve winners had run between 18 and 54 days ago.
• Last Run Form – Seven of the last twelve runners had won on their previous start and all ten had finished in the first two last time.
• Course Form – Five of the last twelve winners had previously run at York. Just two of them had won at the course.
• Distance Form – All of the last twelve winners had run at 1m 4f in the past and eight of those had won at the trip.
• Flat Form – All of the last twelve winners had run at least four times in the past and won at least three times.
• Official Rating – Eleven of the last twelve winners had an official rating of between 112 or higher.
• Group Wins – All of the last twelve winners had won at least one Group race previously. Ten of them had won a Group 1 race.
• Current Season Form – All of the twelve winners had run at least twice in the current season. Nine had won at least once in the season.

Recent Winners of the Yorkshire Oaks

Our Yorkshire Oaks Tips

It's all about Love.

With only 6 runners declared only one filly ticks all the boxes and it looks like a good opportunity for LOVE to build on her Oaks win before a crack at the Arc.

How we faired

Keith's day of the race message for the 2020 Yorkshire Oaks was:

LOVE 15:15 York 1/2 – It's all about Love. With only 6 runners declared only one filly ticks all the boxes and it looks like a good opportunity for LOVE to build on her 1000 Guineas and Oaks wins before a crack at the Arc. If the sun doesn't dry up all the juice in the ground FRANKLY DARLING should get a bit closer to LOVE today.

Result

LOVE duly won as expected. She travelled strongly throughout tracking the leader, was sent into the lead 3 furlongs out, well clear inside final furlong, easily, impressive. 

1st 5. Love 4/9F
2nd 2. Alpinista 33/1
3rd 6. One Voice 12/1

6 ran Distances: 5l, 2l, 2¼l
Time: 2m 31.31s (slow by 3.91s)

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Nunthorpe Stakes Tips

Friday 21st August – Coolmore Nunthorpe

The Nunthorpe Stakes is York Racecourse's fastest race.  A 5 furlongs sprint, this group one race is open to horses aged two years and up.  

There are two most successful horses, winning two races apiece, we have Tag End in 1928/29/30 and Sharpo in 1980/81/82.  Lester Piggott is leading the way as top jockey for this race having won seven times between 1958 and 1978.  We travel back nigh on 100 years to the leading trainer for the Nunthorpe Stakes, where between 1926 and 1937 Ossie Bell notched up 5 wins.

Last year's winner Battaash has the race record for the Nunthorpe Stakes having rocketed home in just 55.90 seconds!

Nunthorpe Stakes 12 Year Stats and Trends

2007 and 2009 – 2019 (2008 race was run at Newmarket)

• Age – Eleven of the twelve winners were aged between three and seven.
• Sex – Five of the last twelve winners were geldings, four were fillies, two mares and a colt complete the twelve. 
• Country – Six of the last twelve winners were bred in Ireland, five in Great Britain and one in Australia.
• Colour – Ten of the last twelve winners were bay (b) and two were grey (gr).
• Starting Price (SP) – Eight of the last twelve winners returned a SP between 7/1 and 100/1.
• Starting Price Rank – Just two of the last twelve winners started as the SP favourite and six came from the first three in the betting.
• Headgear – None of the last twelve winners wore any headgear. 
• Draw – Ten of the last twelve winners were drawn in stall 6 or higher.
• Days Since Last Run – All of the last twelve winners had run between 21 and 66 days ago.
• Last Run Form – Four of the last twelve runners had won on their previous start and ten had finished in the first four last time.
• Course Form – Eleven of the last twelve winners had previously run at York. Seven of them had won at the course.
• Distance Form – All of the last twelve winners had run at least four times over 5 furlongs in the past and they had all won at least once at the trip.
• Flat Form – All of the last twelve winners had run at least eleven times in the past and won at least twice.
• Official Rating – ALL of the last twelve winners had an official rating of 103 or higher.
• Group Wins – Seven of the last twelve winners had won at least one Group race previously. Six of them had won a Group 1 race.
• Current Season Form – All of the twelve winners had run at least twice in the current season. Eleven had won at least once in the season.

Recent Winners of the Nunthorpe Stakes

Our Nunthorpe Stakes Tips

The talented BATTAASH is a short-priced favourite and should win despite being drawn lower than ideal.

An each-way alternative may be MOSS GILL who looks generously priced at 33/1 after winning over course and distance last time.

How we faired

Keith's day of the race message for the 2020 Nunthorpe Stakes was:

BATTAASH 15:15 York 8/15 – The talented BATAASH is a short-priced favourite and should win despite being drawn lower than ideal. An each-way alternative may be MOSS GILL who looks generously priced at 40/1 after winning over course and distance last time.

Result

BATTAASH had to show battling qualities in overcoming slow ground to land back-to-back Nunthorpe's, the time was a full two seconds slower than his record-breaking 2019 win. 

A nice bonus for us was the each-way selection MOSS GILL managed to get third place.

1st 1. Battaash 1/2F
2nd 8. Que Amoro 22/1
3rd 3. Moss Gill 22/1

8 ran Distances: 1l, 2l, ½l
Time: 57.38s (slow by 0.08s)

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The Ebor Tips

Saturday 22nd August – Ebor Day

York Racecourse's oldest race, first run in 1843, it's a heritage handicap race run over 1 mile, 5 furlongs and 188 yards.  Open to horses aged four and over, the Ebor Handicap is the richest flat race in Europe with a prize purse of £1million, the winner set to win £600,000.

The most successful horse only clocked up 2 wins back in 1922/23 was Flint Jack.  Lester Piggott is still the leading jockey for this race, having won it 5 times between 1958 and 1983.  The leading trainer is Tom Dawson having 5 winners back in 1844, 1850, 1860, 1862 and 1867.

Last year's winner was Mustajeer who went off at 16/1.

The Ebor 12 Year Stats and Trends

2007 and 2009 – 2019 (2008 race was run at Newbury)

• Age – All of the twelve winners were aged between four and seven and nine of them ere either five or six.
• Sex – Eleven geldings and one mare have won in the last twelve years.
• Country – Six of the last twelve winners were bred in Ireland, four in Great Britain, one in the USA and one in France.
• Colour – Eight of the last twelve winners were bay (b), two were chestnut (ch) one was grey (gr) and the other one was bay / brown (b/br).
• Starting Price (SP) – Nine of the last twelve winners returned an SP of between 11/1 and 33/1.
• Starting Price Rank – Just one of the last twelve winners started as the SP favourite.
• Headgear – Nine of the last twelve winners had no headgear. Two wore hoods and the other cheekpieces.
• Draw – Ten of the last twelve winners were drawn in stall 10 or higher.
• Days Since Last Run – Eleven of the last twelve winners had run between 19 and 77 days ago.
• Last Run Form – Four of the last twelve runners had won on their previous start and ten of had finished in the first five last time.
• Weight Carried – All of the last twelve winners carried between 8st 8lb and 9st 9lb pounds
• Weight Rank – Top weights have a disadvantage none of the top two in the weights has won in the last twelve years.
• Official Rating – All of the last twelve winners had an official rating of between 94 and 109.

Recent Winners of The Ebor

Our Ebor Handicap Tips

The Ebor Handicap is always a tricky race to solve and this year is no exception.

Looking at the stats above we can narrow it down a bit but nothing ticks every box and a case can be made for half the field.

These are the contenders that fit more trends than most, SHAILENE, ALRIGHT SUNSHINE, ISLAND BRAVE and FUJARIA PRINCE.

How we faired

Keith's day of the race message for the 2020 Ebor Handicap was:

SHAILENE 15:40 York 25/1 Each Way – A ticky Ebor Handicap and nothing ticks every box. These are the contenders that fit more trends than most, SHAILENE, ALRIGHT SUNSHINE, ISLAND BRAVE and FUJARIA PRINCE. I have decided on SHAILENE as a high draw and not too much of welter a burden of weight is pretty important.

Result

The writing was on the wall early on SHAILENE was always in the rear and never got put into the race by Oisin Murphy. The winner was FUJAIRA PRINCE who had been short listed and was also a winner for Keith's Notebook. 

1st 4. Fujaira Prince 11/2F
2nd 22. Glencadam Glory 25/1
3rd 18. Verdana Blue 9/1
4th 16. Monica Sheriff 11/1

21 ran

Distances: ½l, 1½l, 2¼l T
ime: 3m 4.22s (slow by 8.22s)

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