Cheltenham Tuesday 10th March 2.50pm

Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) (5yo+) Distance: 3 miles 1 furlong

Weights – Handicap

Race three on day one is the Ultima Handicap Chase, which is also known as the Festival Handicap. This takes place on the old course and is for horses aged five years old and older.

The race is often a good pointer for the Grand National in April, with horses like West Tip and Seagram all winning both the handicap and the Grand National in the past. The race is normally a good one for English based trainers, with David Pipe and Jonjo O’Neill both scoring 3 times in the last 12 years.

Here are the Cheltenham Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase Trends and Statistics for the last 12 years.

• Age – Ten of the last twelve winners were aged between seven and nine.
• Starting Price – Just two of the last twelve favourites have won. Ten of the last twelve winners returned a SP of between 5/1 and 14/1.
• Weights – Eleven of the last of the last twelve winners carried 11st 8lbs or less.
• Last Run – Eight of the last twelve winners at least placed on their last run before Cheltenham. Ten of the last twelve winners had their previous run within the last 45 days.
• Course Form – Ten of the last twelve winners had at least three previous runs at Cheltenham, five of them had a previous win at Cheltenham.
• Distance Form – Eleven of the last of the last twelve winners had at least three previous runs over at least 3 miles. All of the last twelve winners had at least one win in a race of 3 miles or more.
• Hurdle Form – Eleven of the last twelve winners had at least five runs over hurdles and at least one win over hurdles.
• Chase Form – All of the last twelve winners had at least three previous chase runs. Eleven of the last twelve winners had at least one previous chase win.
• Official Rating – Ten of the last twelve winners had a rating of 142 or higher.
• Season Form – Ten of the last twelve winners had at least three runs that season. Nine of the last twelve winners had at least 1 previous win that season.

• VINTAGE CLOUDS
  
• THE CONDITIONAL
  
• VINNDICATION
  
• OK CORRAL
  

Cheltenham handicap entries are not declared until 48 hours before the race, so writing this four weeks ahead of the race, we are relying on betting markets, stable rumours and other uncertain sources for runner information, but I would expect the likes of VINTAGE CLOUDS, THE CONDITIONAL, VINNDICATION and OK CORRAL to be involved.

While I like OK CORRAL, a horse who is often ridden by the top Irish amateur Derek O’Connor, my pin lands on VINTAGE CLOUDS, a horse that many of you know I am particularly sweet on, and he got us a nice 25/1 return when runner up in this race last year.

VINTAGE CLOUDS bounced right back to his best when winning the Peter Marsh Chase this year, making most of the running.

My selection for the 2020 Ultima Handicap Chase is: VINTAGE CLOUDS 25/1 each way (NRNB)

As this article is written in advance of the 2020 Festival, the likely contenders are expected to change as we get closer to Champion Day. The picture also starts to get much clearer as we approach the festival, with trainers starting to show their cards in the weeks leading up to Day 1. 

To get Keith’s very latest, up-to-date thoughts on the Day 1 card, and his final Day 1 tips, simply register as a FREE FRT member here, and Keith will email you the full Day 1 tips (including for this race) on the morning of Champion Day.

Currently the market is headed by SINGLEFARMPAYMENT, MALL DINI, BLACK CORTON and ROYAL VACATION but at this stage we are only guessing who will actually be running in the race.

My tentative selection for the race is BLACK CORTON 14/1 each way who was a leading novice last season and ticks a lot of boxes.

On the day of the race BLACK CORTON was a non runner and FRT Tipster Keith advised VINTAGE CLOUDS as a replacement, he finished third for us, having been advised each way at 25/1, the SP was 16/1.

• 2008 An Accordion 7 10–12 Tom Scudamore David Pipe
• 2009 Wichita Lineman 8 10-09 Tony McCoy Jonjo O’Neill
• 2010 Chief Dan George 10 10-10 Paddy Aspell James Moffatt
• 2011 Bensalem 8 11-02 Robert Thornton Alan King
• 2012 Alfie Sherrin 9 10-00 Richie McLernon Jonjo O’Neill
• 2013 Golden Chieftain 8 10-05 Brendan Powell Jnr Colin Tizzard
• 2014 Holywell 7 11-06 Richie McLernon Jonjo O’Neill
• 2015 The Druids Nephew 8 11-03 Barry Geraghty Neil Mulholland
• 2016 Un Temps Pour Tout 7 11-07 Tom Scudamore David Pipe
• 2017 Un Temps Pour Tout 8 11–12 Tom Scudamore David Pipe
• 2018 Coo Star Sivola 6 10-10 Lizzie Kelly Nick Williams
• 2019 Beware The Bear 9 11-08 Jeremiah McGrath Nicky Henderson

As these articles are written in advance of the 2020 Festival, the likely contenders are expected to change as we get closer to Champion Day. The picture also starts to get much clearer as we approach the festival, with trainers starting to show their cards in the weeks leading up to Day

To get Keith’s very latest, up-to-date thoughts on the Day 1 card, and his final Day 1 tips, simply register as a FREE FRT member here, and Keith will email you the full Day 1 tips on the morning of Champion Day.

Over the years, Keith has been a regular at the northern tracks attending countless race meetings and building up a network of contacts, and a portfolio of systems and strategies. 

He was one of the co-founders of Free Racing Tips all the way back in 2008, and his free tips are now backed by more than seventy thousand FRT members every single day.

“Thanks Keith – It’s great to be part of an amazing group of people all after the same thing, passing on tips to beat the bookies” 

Colin Parkinson, Harrow.

The FRT community love Keith’s attention to detail, knowledge of past races, and ability to pick horses…

“You offer some great tips, some fantastic outsiders tipped up as well. Most tipsters just put up favourites. Well done and keep up the good work”

John Woolley, Stockport