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The Marsh Novices Chase tips 2021

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View Keith's tips for the Marsh Novices Chase

Marsh Novices Chase TipsWhen is the Marsh Novices Chase?

Cheltenham Thursday 18th March 1.30pm

Marsh Novices Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+)

Distance: 2 Miles 4 furlongs

Weights – 11st 3lb (5yo), 11st 4lb (6yo+), 7lb allowance for mares

Day three kicks off with the Marsh Novices Chase (Formerly the JLT Novices Chase), a championship race for novices over a distance of two and a half miles on the new course, where they have to clear 17 fences.

This is for those horses that are not quite fast enough to run in the Arkle, but don’t have the stamina for the RSA Chase.

Willie Mullins has trained the winner of four of the eight renewals.  A lot of these horses are also entered in the RSA Chase and the Arkle which muddies the waters a little bit when you’re trying to pick a selection.  This race was first run in 2011.

 

Marsh Novices Chase Records

Fastest Win (since 2011): Vautour 2015 ridden by Ruby Walsh trained by Willie Mullins finished in 286.3s – 4 minutes 46.3 seconds

Leading jockey (3 wins):

Ruby Walsh – Vautour (2015), Black Hercules (2016), Yorkhill (2017)

Leading trainer (4 wins):

Willie Mullins – Sir Des Champs (2012), Vautour (2015), Black Hercules (2016), Yorkhill (2017)

Source: Wikipedia

Marsh Novices Chase Trends and Statistics

10 Year Trends and Statistics 

  • Age – 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 7.
  • Sex – 9 of the last 10 winners were geldings. The 1 winning mare came from just 5 runners.
  • Trainer – Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott are the only trainers to saddle more than 1 winner in the last 10 years with 4 and 2 wins respectively. 
  • Country – 5 of the last 10 winners were bred in Ireland and 4 in France and 1 in Germany..
  • Colour – 5 of the last 10 winners were bay..
  • Starting Price (SP) – 8 of the last 10 winners returned a SP 4/1 or less.
  • Starting Price Rank – 4 of the last 10 winners started as favourite and 9 were in the first 4 in the betting.
  • Headgear – 9 of the last 10 winners wore no headgear
  • Days Since Last Run – 8 of the last 10 winners had run between 31 and 60 days ago. 
  • Last Run Form – 9 of the last 10 winners had won last time out.
Who are the Marsh Novices Chase Leading Contenders?

ENVOI ALLEN –  Unbeaten in a point to point and 11 races under rules. Champion Bumper winner in 2019, Ballymore Hurdle winner in 2020. Landed a Grade 1 chase at Fairyhouse in November.

ENERGUMENE – Lightly raced, unbeaten since his bumper days, easy winner of the Irish Arkle.

SHAN BLUE – Stepped up from his hurdle form when landing the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day but was beaten fair and square when runner up at Sandown subsequently.

ALLART –  Grade 2 winner at Ascot in December, failed to build on that when falling at Haydock.

What’s Keith’s Marsh Novices Chase Tips?

With many of these holding multiple entries at Cheltenham you need to be able to second guess the stable plans. ENVOI ALLEN looks to have been aimed at this though and will likely frighten off some off the opposition.

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On the day Keith selected ENVOI ALLEN 13:20 Cheltenham 4/9 – The unbeaten ENVOI ALLEN has been aimed at this all season and has frightened any serious opposition.

How did he do?  Unfortunately Envoi Allen fell at the 4th fence.

 

Here was what Keith said about the 2020 Marsh Novices Chase.

At the time of writing, the top four in the ante-post market were priced at either 7/1 or 8/1. However, in my opinion it is not as wide open as that market suggests.

To my mind, this is a two horse race between the rejuvenated FAUGHEEN and the progressive ITCHY FEET.

Nobody would be happier than me if FAUGHEEN can continue to roll back the years but I feel he is vulnerable to younger legs up the Cheltenham hill, and I also think that  ITCHY FEET is going to be a force to be reckoned with for years to come in all the top chases.

My selection: ITCHY FEET 7/1 each way

As this article is written in advance of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival, the likely contenders are expected to change as we get closer to St Patrick's Day. The picture also starts to get much clearer as we approach the festival, with trainers starting to show their cards in the weeks leading up to Day 3. 

On the day, Keith selected: ITCHY FEET

How did he do? Thursday began badly when ITCHY FEET unseated at the 6th in the Marsh Novices Chase.

Marsh Novices Chase Results

Marsh Novices Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller) (GBB Race)
Distance: 2m4f (4348 yards +57 yards rails adjustment) Prize (winner): £73854 Dir: Left Handed
Runners: 8    Going: Good To Soft    Class: Class 1 Grade 1    Age Restrictions: 5yo+
Winners Time: 5 mins 1.75s   Avg OR: 154     Median OR: 152.5  

NoPlaceDist BtHorseAgeTrainerJockey (Claim)OddsBFBFP
31stChantry House (IRE)7Henderson, N JBoinville, Nico9/115.002.35
tracked leaders on outside, not fluent 9th, challenged before 2 out, led approaching last, driven flat, stayed on well BF IP MIN 1.01 BF IP MAX 17
72nd3Fusil Raffles (FR)6Henderson, N JJacob, Daryl14/115.113.04
led until after 7th, chased leader, led again before 2 out, headed before not fluent and pecked last, held by winner flat, kept on BF IP MIN 1.66 BF IP MAX 1000
13rd2Asterion Forlonge (FR)7Mullins, W PTownend, P14/115.603.83
held up rear of mid-division on outside, closed when not much room 11th, went 3rd from 2 out, soon ridden and hung left, not fluent last, held flat, kept on BF IP MIN 1.65 BF IP MAX 1000
44th3Chatham Street Lad (IRE)9Winters, MichaelOKeeffe, Darragh14/125.212.93
chased leaders on inside, not fluent 6th, mistake 3 out, not much room and switched right before 2 out, went 4th from last, hung left, no impression BF IP MIN 4 BF IP MAX 1000
85th4Shan Blue (IRE)7Skelton, DanielSkelton, Harry10/111.042.48
tracked leader, challenged 7th, soon led and upped tempo, not fluent 8th, clear 10th, hit 4 out, reduced lead after 3 out, headed before 2 out, soon beaten, not much room and weakened flat BF IP MIN 2.52 BF IP MAX 1000
26th30Blackbow (IRE)8Mullins, W PCooper, Bryan J40/144.045.80
held up in rear, slightly hampered 4th, lacked pace to ever get on terms, well beaten before 3 out, tailed off BF IP MIN 22 BF IP MAX 1000
57th25Darver Star (IRE)9Cromwell, Gavin PatrickDonoghue, K M33/134.004.40
lacked fluency and slow at times, always in rear, behind 8th, tailed off BF IP MIN 17.5 BF IP MAX 1000
6FEnvoi Allen (FR)7Bromhead, Henry DeKennedy, J W4/9 (Fav)1.621.20
chased leaders, fell 4th BF IP MIN 1.56 BF IP MAX 1000

Marsh Novices Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller)
Distance: 2m4f (4348 yards +38 yards rails adjustment) Prize (winner): £84405 Dir: Left Handed
Runners: 12    Going: Soft    Class: Class 1 Grade 1    Age Restrictions: 5yo+
Winners Time: 5 mins 7.32s   Avg OR: 150     Median OR: 151

NoPlaceDist BtHorseAgeORTrainerJockey (Claim)Odds
91stSamcro (IRE)8157Elliott, GordonRussell, D N4/1
tracked leaders, joined leader going well 3 out, mistake and shaken up after next, ridden to lead narrowly after last, stayed on well under pressure flat, joined near finish, just prevailed on nod BF IP MIN 1.2 BF IP MAX 15
42ndNSEMelon8151Mullins, W PMullins, Mr P W14/1
tracked leader, led after 4th, joined 3 out, ridden after next, headed narrowly after last, rallied gamely flat, upsides near finish, just lost out on nod BF IP MIN 1.07 BF IP MAX 75
23rd1Faugheen (IRE)12158Mullins, W PTownend, P3/1 (Fav)
led to after 4th, tracked leader, lost place when pecked 3 out, chased front pair when switched inside between last 2, ridden and switched right after last, rallied flat, not quite able to get back on terms near finish BF IP MIN 2.5 BF IP MAX 1000
64th3.25Mister Fisher (IRE)6153Henderson, N JBoinville, Nico7/1
tracked leaders on inside, not fluent 5th, mid-division after next, headway to chase leaders before 2 out, ridden and kept on same pace in 4th before last, no impression BF IP MIN 4.3 BF IP MAX 1000
105th4.75Tornado Flyer (IRE)7149Mullins, W PMullins, D E10/1
held up behind, driven and outpaced after 3 out, ridden after next, kept on under pressure flat, never nearer BF IP MIN 12.5 BF IP MAX 1000
56th1.25Midnight Shadow7150Smith, Mrs S JCook, Danny22/1
mid-division on outside, headway before 3 out, soon every chance, driven and one pace approaching next, no impression between last 2 BF IP MIN 14 BF IP MAX 1000
117th2.75Saint Sonnet (FR)5145Nicholls, P FCobden, Harry33/1
mid-division, lost place and behind 11th, headway before 3 out, chased leaders turning in, ridden after 2 out, no impression before last BF IP MIN 20 BF IP MAX 1000
18th12Bapaume (FR)7153Mullins, W PBlackmore, Rachael20/1
mid-division, chased leaders 3 out, outpaced before next, ridden and weakened last BF IP MIN 9 BF IP MAX 1000
129th40Annie Mc (IRE)6145ONeill, JonjoONeill, Jonjo (Jr)18/1
held up towards rear, outpaced after 3 out, soon ridden, never able to challenge, weakened next, tailed off BF IP MIN 13 BF IP MAX 1000
710th16Poker Play (FR)7137Pipe, D EScudamore, Tom100/1
close up on outside, lost place 8th (water), in rear when jumped slowly 10th, lost touch 4 out, continued tailed off BF IP MIN 260 BF IP MAX 1000
8PUReserve Tank (IRE)6151Tizzard, C LPower, R M12/1
prominent on inside, ridden and lost place after 3 out, weakened quickly and pulled up before next BF IP MIN 8.2 BF IP MAX 1000
3URItchy Feet (FR)6155Murphy, OllySheehan, Gavin7/2
held up behind, mistake 4th, blundered and unseated rider 6th BF IP MIN 5.3 BF IP MAX 1000
Novices Chase Previous Winners

New Race in 2011

DateGoingRunnersWinnerStallionAgeJockey (Clm)TrainerOddsWeightORNC(F)Days
Good To Soft879/111-41510(0)29d
Soft1284/111-41572(2)77d
Good To Soft1063/111-41510(0)40d
Soft974/110-111440(0)76d
Good876/411-41550(0)53d
Good974/111-41521(1)32d
Good866/411-41540(0)53d
Good1277/111-41470(0)54d
Good To Soft13720/111-41472(0)47d
Good1063/111-41480(0)47d
Good1174/111-41460(0)53d

 

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Keith Bond is our resident pro tipster here at FRT Towers. Keith lives and breathes horse racing, having begun his love of horse racing over 40 years ago with a part time job at Catterick Racecourse, as one of three fourteen year-olds looking after two jumps and a hurdle.

Over the years, Keith has been a regular at the northern tracks attending countless race meetings and building up a network of contacts, and a portfolio of systems and strategies. 

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Cheltenham Festival Thursday

Race Schedule

START TIMESRACEDISTANCETYPE
13:30The Marsh Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)2m abt 4fChase
14:10The Pertemps Network Final (A Handicap Hurdle Race) (Listed)Abt 3mHurdle
14:50The Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)
(feature race)
2m abt 5fChase
15:30The Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1)abt 3mHurdle
16:10The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (A Handicap Steeple Chase) (Grade 3)2m abt 5fChase
16:50The Daylesford Mares Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)2m 1fHurdle
17:30The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase (0-145)3m abt 2fChase

The Countdown to Cheltenham 2022

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