The Marsh Novices Chase tips 2021
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View Keith's tips for the Marsh Novices Chase
When is the Marsh Novices Chase?
Cheltenham Thursday 18th March 1.30pm
Marsh Novices Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+)
Distance: 2 Miles 4 furlongs
Weights – 11st 3lb (5yo), 11st 4lb (6yo+), 7lb allowance for mares
Day three kicks off with the Marsh Novices Chase (Formerly the JLT Novices Chase), a championship race for novices over a distance of two and a half miles on the new course, where they have to clear 17 fences.
This is for those horses that are not quite fast enough to run in the Arkle, but don’t have the stamina for the RSA Chase.
Willie Mullins has trained the winner of four of the eight renewals. A lot of these horses are also entered in the RSA Chase and the Arkle which muddies the waters a little bit when you’re trying to pick a selection. This race was first run in 2011.
Marsh Novices Chase Records
Fastest Win (since 2011): Vautour 2015 ridden by Ruby Walsh trained by Willie Mullins finished in 286.3s – 4 minutes 46.3 seconds
Leading jockey (3 wins):
Ruby Walsh – Vautour (2015), Black Hercules (2016), Yorkhill (2017)
Leading trainer (4 wins):
Willie Mullins – Sir Des Champs (2012), Vautour (2015), Black Hercules (2016), Yorkhill (2017)
10 Year Trends and Statistics
- Age – 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 7.
- Sex – 9 of the last 10 winners were geldings. The 1 winning mare came from just 5 runners.
- Trainer – Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott are the only trainers to saddle more than 1 winner in the last 10 years with 4 and 2 wins respectively.
- Country – 5 of the last 10 winners were bred in Ireland and 4 in France and 1 in Germany..
- Colour – 5 of the last 10 winners were bay..
- Starting Price (SP) – 8 of the last 10 winners returned a SP 4/1 or less.
- Starting Price Rank – 4 of the last 10 winners started as favourite and 9 were in the first 4 in the betting.
- Headgear – 9 of the last 10 winners wore no headgear
- Days Since Last Run – 8 of the last 10 winners had run between 31 and 60 days ago.
- Last Run Form – 9 of the last 10 winners had won last time out.
ENVOI ALLEN – Unbeaten in a point to point and 11 races under rules. Champion Bumper winner in 2019, Ballymore Hurdle winner in 2020. Landed a Grade 1 chase at Fairyhouse in November.
ENERGUMENE – Lightly raced, unbeaten since his bumper days, easy winner of the Irish Arkle.
SHAN BLUE – Stepped up from his hurdle form when landing the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day but was beaten fair and square when runner up at Sandown subsequently.
ALLART – Grade 2 winner at Ascot in December, failed to build on that when falling at Haydock.
What’s Keith’s Marsh Novices Chase Tips?
With many of these holding multiple entries at Cheltenham you need to be able to second guess the stable plans. ENVOI ALLEN looks to have been aimed at this though and will likely frighten off some off the opposition.
To be sure to find out who Keith selects on the morning of the race, join our VIP Club
On the day Keith selected ENVOI ALLEN 13:20 Cheltenham 4/9 – The unbeaten ENVOI ALLEN has been aimed at this all season and has frightened any serious opposition.
How did he do? Unfortunately Envoi Allen fell at the 4th fence.
Here was what Keith said about the 2020 Marsh Novices Chase.
At the time of writing, the top four in the ante-post market were priced at either 7/1 or 8/1. However, in my opinion it is not as wide open as that market suggests.
To my mind, this is a two horse race between the rejuvenated FAUGHEEN and the progressive ITCHY FEET.
Nobody would be happier than me if FAUGHEEN can continue to roll back the years but I feel he is vulnerable to younger legs up the Cheltenham hill, and I also think that ITCHY FEET is going to be a force to be reckoned with for years to come in all the top chases.
My selection: ITCHY FEET 7/1 each way
As this article is written in advance of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival, the likely contenders are expected to change as we get closer to St Patrick's Day. The picture also starts to get much clearer as we approach the festival, with trainers starting to show their cards in the weeks leading up to Day 3.
On the day, Keith selected: ITCHY FEET
How did he do? Thursday began badly when ITCHY FEET unseated at the 6th in the Marsh Novices Chase.
Marsh Novices Chase Results
Marsh Novices Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller) (GBB Race)
Distance: 2m4f (4348 yards +57 yards rails adjustment) Prize (winner): £73854 Dir: Left Handed
Runners: 8 Going: Good To Soft Class: Class 1 Grade 1 Age Restrictions: 5yo+
Winners Time: 5 mins 1.75s Avg OR: 154 Median OR: 152.5
|No||Place||Dist Bt||Horse||Age||Trainer||Jockey (Claim)||Odds||BF||BFP|
|3||1st||Chantry House (IRE)||7||Henderson, N J||Boinville, Nico||9/1||15.00||2.35|
|tracked leaders on outside, not fluent 9th, challenged before 2 out, led approaching last, driven flat, stayed on well BF IP MIN 1.01 BF IP MAX 17|
|7||2nd||3||Fusil Raffles (FR)||6||Henderson, N J||Jacob, Daryl||14/1||15.11||3.04|
|led until after 7th, chased leader, led again before 2 out, headed before not fluent and pecked last, held by winner flat, kept on BF IP MIN 1.66 BF IP MAX 1000|
|1||3rd||2||Asterion Forlonge (FR)||7||Mullins, W P||Townend, P||14/1||15.60||3.83|
|held up rear of mid-division on outside, closed when not much room 11th, went 3rd from 2 out, soon ridden and hung left, not fluent last, held flat, kept on BF IP MIN 1.65 BF IP MAX 1000|
|4||4th||3||Chatham Street Lad (IRE)||9||Winters, Michael||OKeeffe, Darragh||14/1||25.21||2.93|
|chased leaders on inside, not fluent 6th, mistake 3 out, not much room and switched right before 2 out, went 4th from last, hung left, no impression BF IP MIN 4 BF IP MAX 1000|
|8||5th||4||Shan Blue (IRE)||7||Skelton, Daniel||Skelton, Harry||10/1||11.04||2.48|
|tracked leader, challenged 7th, soon led and upped tempo, not fluent 8th, clear 10th, hit 4 out, reduced lead after 3 out, headed before 2 out, soon beaten, not much room and weakened flat BF IP MIN 2.52 BF IP MAX 1000|
|2||6th||30||Blackbow (IRE)||8||Mullins, W P||Cooper, Bryan J||40/1||44.04||5.80|
|held up in rear, slightly hampered 4th, lacked pace to ever get on terms, well beaten before 3 out, tailed off BF IP MIN 22 BF IP MAX 1000|
|5||7th||25||Darver Star (IRE)||9||Cromwell, Gavin Patrick||Donoghue, K M||33/1||34.00||4.40|
|lacked fluency and slow at times, always in rear, behind 8th, tailed off BF IP MIN 17.5 BF IP MAX 1000|
|6||F||Envoi Allen (FR)||7||Bromhead, Henry De||Kennedy, J W||4/9 (Fav)||1.62||1.20|
|chased leaders, fell 4th BF IP MIN 1.56 BF IP MAX 1000|
Marsh Novices Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller)
Distance: 2m4f (4348 yards +38 yards rails adjustment) Prize (winner): £84405 Dir: Left Handed
Runners: 12 Going: Soft Class: Class 1 Grade 1 Age Restrictions: 5yo+
Winners Time: 5 mins 7.32s Avg OR: 150 Median OR: 151
|No||Place||Dist Bt||Horse||Age||OR||Trainer||Jockey (Claim)||Odds|
|9||1st||Samcro (IRE)||8||157||Elliott, Gordon||Russell, D N||4/1|
|tracked leaders, joined leader going well 3 out, mistake and shaken up after next, ridden to lead narrowly after last, stayed on well under pressure flat, joined near finish, just prevailed on nod BF IP MIN 1.2 BF IP MAX 15|
|4||2nd||NSE||Melon||8||151||Mullins, W P||Mullins, Mr P W||14/1|
|tracked leader, led after 4th, joined 3 out, ridden after next, headed narrowly after last, rallied gamely flat, upsides near finish, just lost out on nod BF IP MIN 1.07 BF IP MAX 75|
|2||3rd||1||Faugheen (IRE)||12||158||Mullins, W P||Townend, P||3/1 (Fav)|
|led to after 4th, tracked leader, lost place when pecked 3 out, chased front pair when switched inside between last 2, ridden and switched right after last, rallied flat, not quite able to get back on terms near finish BF IP MIN 2.5 BF IP MAX 1000|
|6||4th||3.25||Mister Fisher (IRE)||6||153||Henderson, N J||Boinville, Nico||7/1|
|tracked leaders on inside, not fluent 5th, mid-division after next, headway to chase leaders before 2 out, ridden and kept on same pace in 4th before last, no impression BF IP MIN 4.3 BF IP MAX 1000|
|10||5th||4.75||Tornado Flyer (IRE)||7||149||Mullins, W P||Mullins, D E||10/1|
|held up behind, driven and outpaced after 3 out, ridden after next, kept on under pressure flat, never nearer BF IP MIN 12.5 BF IP MAX 1000|
|5||6th||1.25||Midnight Shadow||7||150||Smith, Mrs S J||Cook, Danny||22/1|
|mid-division on outside, headway before 3 out, soon every chance, driven and one pace approaching next, no impression between last 2 BF IP MIN 14 BF IP MAX 1000|
|11||7th||2.75||Saint Sonnet (FR)||5||145||Nicholls, P F||Cobden, Harry||33/1|
|mid-division, lost place and behind 11th, headway before 3 out, chased leaders turning in, ridden after 2 out, no impression before last BF IP MIN 20 BF IP MAX 1000|
|1||8th||12||Bapaume (FR)||7||153||Mullins, W P||Blackmore, Rachael||20/1|
|mid-division, chased leaders 3 out, outpaced before next, ridden and weakened last BF IP MIN 9 BF IP MAX 1000|
|12||9th||40||Annie Mc (IRE)||6||145||ONeill, Jonjo||ONeill, Jonjo (Jr)||18/1|
|held up towards rear, outpaced after 3 out, soon ridden, never able to challenge, weakened next, tailed off BF IP MIN 13 BF IP MAX 1000|
|7||10th||16||Poker Play (FR)||7||137||Pipe, D E||Scudamore, Tom||100/1|
|close up on outside, lost place 8th (water), in rear when jumped slowly 10th, lost touch 4 out, continued tailed off BF IP MIN 260 BF IP MAX 1000|
|8||PU||Reserve Tank (IRE)||6||151||Tizzard, C L||Power, R M||12/1|
|prominent on inside, ridden and lost place after 3 out, weakened quickly and pulled up before next BF IP MIN 8.2 BF IP MAX 1000|
|3||UR||Itchy Feet (FR)||6||155||Murphy, Olly||Sheehan, Gavin||7/2|
|held up behind, mistake 4th, blundered and unseated rider 6th BF IP MIN 5.3 BF IP MAX 1000|
New Race in 2011
|18.03.2021||Good To Soft||8||Chantry House (IRE)||Yeats (IRE)||7||Boinville, Nico||Henderson, N J||9/1||11-4||151||0(0)||29d|
|12.03.2020||Soft||12||Samcro (IRE)||Germany (USA)||8||Russell, D N||Elliott, Gordon||4/1||11-4||157||2(2)||77d|
|14.03.2019||Good To Soft||10||Defi Du Seuil (FR)||Voix Du Nord (FR)||6||Geraghty, B J||Hobbs, P J||3/1||11-4||151||0(0)||40d|
|15.03.2018||Soft||9||Shattered Love (IRE)||Yeats (IRE)||7||Kennedy, J W||Elliott, Gordon||4/1||10-11||144||0(0)||76d|
|16.03.2017||Good||8||Yorkhill (IRE)||Presenting||7||Walsh, R||Mullins, W P||6/4||11-4||155||0(0)||53d|
|17.03.2016||Good||9||Black Hercules (IRE)||Heron Island (IRE)||7||Walsh, R||Mullins, W P||4/1||11-4||152||1(1)||32d|
|12.03.2015||Good||8||Vautour (FR)||Robin Des Champs (FR)||6||Walsh, R||Mullins, W P||6/4||11-4||154||0(0)||53d|
|13.03.2014||Good||12||Taquin Du Seuil (FR)||Voix Du Nord (FR)||7||McCoy, A P||ONeill, Jonjo||7/1||11-4||147||0(0)||54d|
|14.03.2013||Good To Soft||13||Benefficient (IRE)||Beneficial||7||Cooper, Bryan J||Martin, A J||20/1||11-4||147||2(0)||47d|
|15.03.2012||Good||10||Sir Des Champs (FR)||Robin Des Champs (FR)||6||Russell, D N||Mullins, W P||3/1||11-4||148||0(0)||47d|
|17.03.2011||Good||11||Noble Prince (GER)||Montjeu (IRE)||7||McCoy, A P||Nolan, Paul||4/1||11-4||146||0(0)||53d|
Keith Bond is our resident pro tipster here at FRT Towers. Keith lives and breathes horse racing, having begun his love of horse racing over 40 years ago with a part time job at Catterick Racecourse, as one of three fourteen year-olds looking after two jumps and a hurdle.
Over the years, Keith has been a regular at the northern tracks attending countless race meetings and building up a network of contacts, and a portfolio of systems and strategies.
He was one of the co-founders of Free Racing Tips all the way back in 2008, and his free tips are now backed by more than seventy thousand FRT members every single day.
“Thanks Keith – It’s great to be part of an amazing group of people all after the same thing, passing on tips to beat the bookies”
Colin Parkinson, Harrow.
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Cheltenham Festival Thursday
|13:30||The Marsh Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)||2m abt 4f||Chase|
|14:10||The Pertemps Network Final (A Handicap Hurdle Race) (Listed)||Abt 3m||Hurdle|
|14:50||The Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)|
|2m abt 5f||Chase|
|15:30||The Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1)||abt 3m||Hurdle|
|16:10||The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (A Handicap Steeple Chase) (Grade 3)||2m abt 5f||Chase|
|16:50||The Daylesford Mares Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)||2m 1f||Hurdle|
|17:30||The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase (0-145)||3m abt 2f||Chase|
The Countdown to Cheltenham 2022