The Grand National by Numbers
On Saturday 6th April at 5.15pm all eyes with be on Aintree for the most famous horse race in the world the Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase run over 4 miles 2½ furlongs.
Officially first run in 1839 when the winner was Lottery in this article I will concentrate mainly on the statistics and trends from the last 12 years.
12 YEAR STATISTICS
- Age – All 12 winners were aged between 8 and 11, there was a time that 8 years old was considered too young but 3 of the last 4 were aged 8.
- Starting Price – A bad race for fancied horses on 3 of the last 12 winners were in the first 3 in the betting at the off, 10 of the last 12 winners went off at an SP between 7/1 and 33/1.
- Last Run – 11 of the last 12 winners had their last within 56 days, 10 of the 12 finished in the top 6 last time out.
- Weight – 9 of the last 12 winners carried between 10st 3lbs and 11st. ** One thing to remember is that the weights will go up if Bristol De Mai drops out of the race before final declatations.
- Course Form – 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, only 4 winners had at least 1 previous win at the course.
- Distance Form – 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 9 runs over 3 miles or further, 11 of the 12 had at least 1 win over 3 miles or further.
- Chase Form – All 12 winners had at least 10 previous chase runs, 11 of them 12 had at least 3 chase wins.
- Official Rating – 9 of the last 12 winners had an official rating between 137 and 150.
- Graded Wins – 7 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win in grade 1,2 or 3 race.
- Current Season – All of the last 12 had at least 3 runs in the current season, 7 of them had at least 1 win that season.
Leading Contenders
TIGER ROLL (4/1) – Last years winner currently heading the anti-post market at just 4/1 which to my mind is very short in a 40 runner race, I'm not saying he can't do it again but the last horse to win more than one Grand National was Red Rum in 1977 and no horse has won off a price this short since Poethlyn one hundred years ago in 1919 ridden by Lester Piggot's grandfather Ernie. TIGER ROLL also misses out on the ideal weight and rating stats.
ANIBALE FLY (12/1) – Fourth in last years race, and second in this years Cheltenham Gold Cup, no doubts about is stamina and he could well place again but he is another that is too high in the ideal weights and ratings.
RATHVINDEN (12/1) – Leading novice last year but has only had one outing this year although it was a winning one, hasn't run at Aintree before and these fences may catch him out.
VINTAGE CLOUDS (16/1) – Owned by Trevor Hemmings who has won this race 3 times and trained by Sue Smith who captured the race in 2013 with Auroras Encore. The Grand National has been a long term target for this boy who has been placed in the Scottish and Welsh equivalents and was second in the Ultima at Cheltenham last time, stays forever and jumps well, needs 5 horses to drop out of the race so he gets a run, ideally it would be great if the weights were to go up a few pounds too.
LAKE VIEW LAD (20/1) – Also owned by Trevor Hemmings (see above), was two lengths behind VINTAGE CLOUDS in the Ultima, not on my radar for the race as he is tackling a marathon trip for the first time (if he stays he could be one for a future national).
Conclusion
I have never been a lover of anti-post betting and my decision won't be made until nearer the race as we will have a lot more information such as actual runners, confirmation of the weights, weather / going conditions etc, I generally pick out 4 or 5 against the field for the Grand National.
Have fun playing with the statistics.
Yours in racing
Keith
