Haydock August 11th 3.05pm (ITV4)
1m2½f (1m2f100y) Smarkets Betting Exchange Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Statistics since 2006
Age – 6 of the last 12 winners were aged 3, the other 6 were 4 or 5
Starting Price – Just 3 of the last 12 winners were favourites, and only 5 of them were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – Only 2 of the last 12 winners won on their previous run, 10 winners had their last run within 36 days
Previous Course Form – Course form is not important 2 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Haydock, and only 1 winner had a previous win at Haydock
Previous Distance Form – 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 1m2f to 1m 2½f, 7 of those winners had at least 1 previous win over 1m2f to 1m 2½f.
Previous Flat Form – 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 7 previous flat runs, 10 of those winners had at least 2 previous flat wins.
Rating – 11 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 105 or higher
Group Wins – 6 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous Group 2 or 3 win
Season Form – 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous runs that season, 5 of them had at least 1 previous win that season
Verdict
3 year olds by far the best record in the race but the fancied horses have struggled in recent years so we are looking for an improver out of the first 3 in the betting rated at least 105, you might have a different opinion and that’s how it should be but the one that appeals most to me is FAJJAJ trained by Hugo Palmer
Selection
FAJJAJ 8/1 each way
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