At Newbury on Saturday 13th April at 14:40 it is the
Watership Down Stud Greenham Stakes a Group 3 flat horse race in Great Britain] open to three-year-old colts and geldings. It is run over a distance of 7 furlongs (1,408 metres).
History
The event is named after Greenham, the civil parish where Newbury Racecourse is located. It was established in 1906, and was initially contested over a mile, the race continued at that distance until the start of World War II. There was no race from 1941 to 1948, and resumed with a distance of 7 furlongs and 60 yards in 1949. It was shortened to its current trip of 7 furlongs in 1956.
The Greenham Stakes is a recognised classic trial. The last winner to go on and record a victory in the 2000 Guineas was the mighty Frankel in 2011.
12 YEAR STATISTICS
- Age – This event is for 3yo’s only.
- Starting Price – 10 of the 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting, 9 of them at 100/30 or less with 3 of them odds on.
- Last Run – 6 of the last 12 winners won on their last run, 10 of the last 12 winners had their last run over 168 days ago.
- Course Form – 5 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newbury all 5 had won there.
- Distance Form – 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 7 furlongs, 5 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 7 furlongs.
- Previous Form – 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous runs, 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous wins.
- Official Rating – 9 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 106 or higher.
- Group Wins – 7 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win in a group race (1.2 or 3).
- Current Season Form – 10 of the last 12 winners were making their first start of the season, the other 2 had both won their only race of the year.
Leading Contenders
Earlier this week this race revolved around the 2000 Guineas and Derby favourite TOO DARN HOT and the question wasn't what will win but what will be placed and how far behind him would they be, but sadly TOO DARN HOT was found to have some heat in his splint bone and won't be running now till the Guineas. Here are the main contenders for the race.
BOITRON 7/2 – Listed course and distance winner, has had a wind operation since his last run when fourth in a Gr1 at Longchamp, brings some good form to the table.
HELLO YOUMZAIN 7/2 – Has been backed since Friday morning from 11/2 to 7/2, won twice from three runs as a juvenile cumulating in a fine victory in a French Group 2 race, un-raced at further than 6 furlongs.
GREAT SCOT 5/1 – Close fifth in Group 1 at Doncaster over a mile in October, decent form chance but may find the drop back in trip a little on the sharp side.
MOHAATHER 5/1 – Won a Group 3 over course and distance but will need to improve to win in this company.
Conclusion
My selection for the race is
HELLO YOUMZAIN 7/2 sure to handle conditions as won in France on soft going and should stay this trip.
The GREENHAM STAKES is just one of 9 ITV races on Saturday that members of our Premium Tips service will receive tips for, the races include quality Flat racing from Newbury as well as the jumps card from Ayr.
Have fun playing with the statistics.
Yours in racing
Keith
