Epsom Derby Tips
FREE professional horse racing tips for the Epsom Derby.
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When is the Epsom Derby?
Saturday 5th June 2021 at 4.30pm
Epsom Derby (Group 1)
Epsom Downs Racecourse, Surrey
Age: 3yo (exc geldings)
Prize: £283,550 (first place in 2020)
History of the Epsom Derby
Britain's richest horse race, and the most prestigious of the five Classics. It is sometimes referred to as the “Blue Riband” of the turf. First run in 1780.
The race is named after the 12th Earl of Derby. The very first race was won by Diomed owed by Sir Charles Bunbury a close friend of Lord Derby.
These days “Derby's” are found all over the world, Derby Italiano, Irish Derby, Kentucky Derby, Australian Derby to name just a few. But the English Derby at Epsom is the original, the daddy of them all.
The most successful jockey in the race was Lester Piggott with nine wins between 1954 and 1983.
Three trainers share the honours of having the most wins: Robert Robson (1793 – 1823), John Porter (1868 – 1899) and Fred Darling (1922 – 1941). Aidan O'Brien is close behind them with six wins to date the first being Galileo in 2001.
Epsom Derby Trends and Statistics
Here are the Epsom Derby 12 year Trends and Statistics:
- Age – This Race is for three-year olds only.
- Starting Price – Ten of the last twelve winners returned a SP of 7/1 or less.
- Last Run – All of the last twelve winners finished in the first three last time, seven of them were winners.
- Ten of the last twelve winners had a run within the last 35 days.
- Course Form – None of the last twelve winners had raced at Epsom previously.
- Distance Form – Eleven of the last twelve winners had never previously run over one mile four furlongs previously. The exception won his race over the distance.
- Flat Form – All of the last twelve winners had at least one previous win.
- Official Rating – All of the last twelve winners had an official rating of at least 108.
- Group Wins – Ten of the last twelve winners had at least one win in a Group race.
- Season Form – All of the last twelve winners had at least one run in the current season, eight of them had won at least once that season.
Recent Winners of The Epsom Derby
|4.07.2020||Good||16||Serpentine (IRE)||3||McNamara, E J||OBrien, A P||25/1||7d|
|1.06.2019||Good To Firm||13||Anthony Van Dyck (IRE)||3||Heffernan, J A||OBrien, A P||13/2||21d|
|2.06.2018||Good||12||Masar (IRE)||3||Buick, William||Appleby, Charlie||16/1||28d|
|3.06.2017||Good||18||Wings Of Eagles (FR)||3||Beggy, P B||OBrien, A P||40/1||23d|
|4.06.2016||Good To Soft||16||Harzand (IRE)||3||Smullen, P J||Weld, D K||13/2||55d|
|6.06.2015||Good To Firm||12||Golden Horn||3||Dettori, L||Gosden, John and Thady||13/8||23d|
|7.06.2014||Good||16||Australia||3||OBrien, J P||OBrien, A P||11/8||35d|
|1.06.2013||Good||12||Ruler Of The World (IRE)||3||Moore, Ryan||OBrien, A P||7/1||23d|
|2.06.2012||Good To Firm||9||Camelot||3||OBrien, J P||OBrien, A P||8/13||28d|
|4.06.2011||Good To Firm||13||Pour Moi (IRE)||3||Barzalona, Mickael||Fabre, A||4/1|
|5.06.2010||Good To Firm||12||Workforce||3||Moore, Ryan||Stoute, Sir Michael||6/1||23d|
|6.06.2009||Good||12||Sea The Stars (IRE)||3||Kinane, M J||Oxx, John M||11/4||35d|
|7.06.2008||Good||16||New Approach (IRE)||3||Manning, K J||Bolger, J S||5/1||14d|
|2.06.2007||Good||17||Authorized (IRE)||3||Dettori, L||Chapple-Hyam, P W||5/4||16d|
|3.06.2006||Good To Firm||18||Sir Percy||3||Dwyer, Martin||Tregoning, M P||6/1||28d|
|4.06.2005||Good||13||Motivator||3||Murtagh, J||Bell, M L W||3/1||23d|
|5.06.2004||Good||14||North Light (IRE)||3||Fallon, K||Stoute, Sir Michael||7/2||24d|
|7.06.2003||Good||20||Kris Kin (USA)||3||Fallon, K||Stoute, Sir Michael||6/1||30d|
|8.06.2002||Good To Soft||12||High Chaparral (IRE)||3||Murtagh, J||OBrien, A P||7/2||27d|
|9.06.2001||Good To Firm||12||Galileo (IRE)||3||Kinane, M J||OBrien, A P||11/4||27d|
|10.06.2000||Good||15||Sinndar (IRE)||3||Murtagh, J||Oxx, John M||7/1||27d|
|5.06.1999||Good||16||Oath (IRE)||3||Fallon, K||Cecil, H R A||13/2||30d|
|6.06.1998||Good||15||High-Rise (IRE)||3||Peslier, O||Cumani, L M||20/1||28d|
|7.06.1997||Good||13||Benny The Dip (USA)||3||Ryan, W||Gosden, John and Thady||11/1||24d|
What's Our Epsom Derby Tips
The three year olds go head-to-head in the world’s greatest flat race on June 5th 2021 and as always, a hugely talented field looks set to go to post in Surrey. We take a look at some of the key trends and how the favourites are likely to perform over the 12 furlongs.
Given his breeding, it’s easy to see why Bolshoi Bullet has been priced up as the favourite for the 2021 Derby. This son of Galileo has exactly the right pedigree to succeed at this level of competition and having won three of his first five starts on the flat, he has certainly backed up that potential. Having been successful over the 10f recently, this extended trip is the biggest question mark, however, considering he’s been sired by the 2001 Derby winner, he is expected to stick it out.
Aidan O’Brien’s three year old is unbeaten in Ireland, however, he was only third in the Dante at York. That was his seasonal bow, and there is expected to be some improvement from that performance. He is another one who is stretching out to the 12f, however, he’s also sired by Galilieo, so like the favourite, that shouldn’t be an issue.
Willam Haggas’ representative is a very talented horse and displayed its credentials when landing a listed race at Newmarket on the Rowley Mile. He is clearly versatile and has also won on the all-weather this season. Sired by Frankel, there is potentially plenty to like here, however, there are questions over whether he can perform in a bigger field.
Charlie Appleby often has a strong hand in this race and he races an unbeaten three year old in this contest in the shape of Hurricane Lane. This one landed the Dante at York in mid-May and looked strong in the closing stages on that occasion. That bodes well for the step up to 12f and with eight of the last 12 Derby winners having won their last outing, this one could be one to watch.
Van Gogh is another Aidan O’Brien inmate and will be looking to bounce back from an underwhelming display at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas. He was defeated by seven lengths that day and is likely to be tested by the additional 4f here.
Favourites have not typically fared well in the Epsom Derby in recent years, with the race throwing up 13/2, 16/1, 25/1 and 40/1 winners in recent years. Golden Horn was the last favourite to win back in 2015. Ten of the last 12 winners ran within the last 35 days and nine of the last 12 winners had at least two wins on the flat prior to their success.
Four of the last six winners were also victorious in their previous outing, whilst ten of the last 12 winners were drawn in stall 7 or higher.
The Dante has thrown up a few winners of this race in recent years and it’s hard to ignore the performance of Hurricane Lane at York. His price for this race has been cut, and he certainly fits the bill here. Charlie Appleby won this race three years ago and he’ll be keen to stop the Aidan O’Brien dominance this time around.
At a potential each-way price, Aidan O’Brien’s The Mediterranean is an interesting prospect. After a disappointing debut, this three year old, who is also sired by Galileo romped home in a maiden race at Leopardstown. He won by just over a length and as a result, he is one of only a handful who are proven at this distance.
Our Antepost Epsom Derby Tips:
- Hurricane Lane – 6/1
- The Mediterranean E/W – 40/1
This year’s renewal revolves around last year’s champion two-year-old PINATUBO who is an absolute monster of a horse and finished last season uneaten including a fine Royal Ascot win for us in the Chesham Stakes. PINATUBO ended the season with a two-length win over Aiden O’Brien’s ARIZONA in the Dewhurst Stakes over 7 furlongs here at Newmarket. ARIZONA is the current second favourite. Charlie Appleby is sure to have got PINATUBO spot on for this belated renewal of the 2000 Guineas and as he finished last season with an official rating of 128 a full ten pounds higher than the nearest challenger.
It will come as no surprise to you that PINATUBO is Keith’s 2020 selection for the 2000 Guineas.
Epsom Derby Results
Investec Derby (Group 1)
Distance: 1m4f (2646 yards) Prize (winner): £283550 Dir: Left Handed
Runners: 16 Going: Good Class: Class 1 Group 1 Age Restrictions: 3yo
Winners Time: 2 mins 34.43s Avg OR: 88 Median OR: 106.5 Stalls: Centre
|No||Place||Dist Bt||Stall||Horse||Age||OR||Trainer||Jockey (Claim)||Odds||BF||BFP|
|14||1st||12||Serpentine (IRE)||3||0||OBrien, A P||McNamara, E J||25/1||34.00||7.46|
|made all, went clear from 10f out, stayed on strongly, unchallenged BF IP MIN 1.01 BF IP MAX 32|
|7||2nd||5.5||14||Khalifa Sat (IRE)||3||99||Balding, A M||Marquand, Tom||50/1||72.80||14.54|
|chased winner who went clear 10f out, kept on final furlong to hold 2nd, never any chance with unchallenged winner BF IP MIN 16 BF IP MAX 890|
|1||3rd||0.5||5||Amhran Na Bhfiann (IRE)||3||0||OBrien, A P||Buick, William||66/1||71.57||16.37|
|pushed along from start, raced in 3rd and off the pace, pushed along in 3rd straight, kept on final furlong to hold 3rd, never able to challenge BF IP MIN 14 BF IP MAX 820|
|6||4th||NSE||11||Kameko (USA)||3||119||Balding, A M||Murphy, Oisin||5/2 (Fav)||3.65||2.04|
|sweating, raced keenly in 5th, 4th and pushed along straight, ridden 2f out, kept on final furlong, almost snatched 3rd, never going pace to challenge BF IP MIN 3.35 BF IP MAX 1000|
|3||5th||NK||1||English King (FR)||3||112||Walker, Ed||Dettori, L||100/30||5.50||2.32|
|sweating, soon steadied towards rear, 8th and pushed along straight, headway towards inside over 2f out, kept on final furlong, never able to challenge BF IP MIN 5.1 BF IP MAX 1000|
|9||6th||0.75||2||Mogul||3||110||OBrien, A P||Moore, Ryan||7/1||8.80||2.82|
|mid-division, 6th and pushed along straight, headway on inside from 3f out, plugged on final furlong, never any chance BF IP MIN 4.6 BF IP MAX 1000|
|13||7th||1.25||6||Russian Emperor (IRE)||3||111||OBrien, A P||Heffernan, J A||6/1||8.60||2.75|
|towards rear, 9th and pushed along straight, hung left and no impression over 3f out BF IP MIN 7.4 BF IP MAX 1000|
|15||8th||0.5||8||Vatican City (IRE)||3||112||OBrien, A P||Beggy, P B||17/2||11.50||3.55|
|held up off the pace in mid-division, 13th and struggling straight, plugged on final furlong, never a factor BF IP MIN 9.2 BF IP MAX 990|
|4||9th||2.25||16||Gold Maze||3||103||Harrington, Mrs John||Egan, David||150/1||179.17||28.86|
|raced wide in mid-division, 6th straight, headway on outside 3f out, ridden hung left and weakened inside final 2f BF IP MIN 100 BF IP MAX 950|
|5||10th||2.75||13||Highland Chief (IRE)||3||107||Cole, P F I||Curtis, B A||20/1||28.00||5.76|
|always towards rear, 10th and struggling straight, never a factor BF IP MIN 22 BF IP MAX 950|
|12||11th||0.5||3||Pyledriver||3||110||Muir, W R & Grassick, C||Dwyer, Martin||16/1||26.97||5.20|
|towards rear, 15th and struggling straight, never a factor BF IP MIN 20 BF IP MAX 1000|
|10||12th||0.5||15||Mohican Heights (IRE)||3||104||Simcock, D M||Atzeni, Andrea||25/1||36.14||6.34|
|always towards rear, 12th and struggling straight, never a factor BF IP MIN 28 BF IP MAX 950|
|11||13th||0.5||10||Mythical (FR)||3||106||OBrien, A P||Doyle, James||100/1||160.57||23.29|
|towards rear, last and losing touch straight, tailed off BF IP MIN 140 BF IP MAX 710|
|8||14th||NK||7||Max Vega (IRE)||3||110||Beckett, R M||Bentley, Harry||33/1||52.47||9.64|
|raced in 4th, 5th and pushed along straight, weakened inside final 3f, tailed off BF IP MIN 25 BF IP MAX 1000|
|2||15th||2.25||4||Emissary||3||98||Palmer, Hugo||Crowley, Jim||40/1||52.62||14.16|
|slowly into stride, always towards rear, pushed along and struggling straight, never a factor, tailed off BF IP MIN 46 BF IP MAX 1000|
|16||16th||75||9||Worthily (USA)||3||0||Gosden, John and Thady||Harley, M||40/1||84.31||11.19|
|towards rear, 11th and struggling straight, tailed off and eased final 3f, never a factor BF IP MIN 50 BF IP MAX 1000|
Investec Derby Stakes (Group 1)
Distance: 1m4f (2646 yards) Prize (winner): £921537 Dir: Left Handed
Runners: 13 Going: Good To Firm Class: Class 1 Group 1 Age Restrictions: 3yo
Winners Time: 2 mins 33.38s Avg OR: 108 Median OR: 111 Stalls: Centre
|No||Place||Dist Bt||Stall||Horse||Age||OR||Trainer||Jockey (Claim)||Odds||BF||BFP|
|1||1st||7||Anthony Van Dyck (IRE)||3||118||OBrien, A P||Heffernan, J A||13/2||8.60||2.93|
|prominent early, held up mid-division, pushed along over 3f out, headway to chase leaders when not clear run over 2f out, soon ridden, switched inside and stayed on to lead inside final furlong, held on well BF IP MIN 1.01 BF IP MAX 65|
|9||2nd||0.5||6||Madhmoon (IRE)||3||113||Prendergast, Kevin||Hayes, C D||10/1||14.48||4.00|
|held up towards rear of mid-division, headway 3f out, effort to challenge between horses when carried slightly left over 2f out, soon upsides and ridden, kept on and every chance final furlong, just held BF IP MIN 2.86 BF IP MAX 690|
|7||3rd||NSE||11||Japan||3||111||OBrien, A P||Lordan, W M||20/1||42.68||6.59|
|held up towards rear of mid-division, driven over 3f out, ridden and headway on outside over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, just held BF IP MIN 4.1 BF IP MAX 1000|
|3||4th||SH||8||Broome (IRE)||3||114||OBrien, A P||OBrien, Donnacha||4/1||6.33||2.39|
|held up behind, headway on wide outside over 3f out, soon chased leaders, ridden 2f out, kept on well under pressure inside final furlong, just held BF IP MIN 3.95 BF IP MAX 1000|
|11||5th||SH||13||Sir Dragonet (IRE)||3||115||OBrien, A P||Moore, Ryan||11/4 (Fav)||3.90||2.11|
|held up in touch, headway on outside over 3f out, effort to challenge when edged slightly left over 2f out, soon led narrowly, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on BF IP MIN 1.66 BF IP MAX 480|
|4||6th||4.5||5||Circus Maximus (IRE)||3||110||OBrien, A P||Dettori, L||10/1||12.31||4.60|
|stumbled start, tracked leaders, ridden and effort to challenge when carried slightly left over 2f out, soon one pace, no impression inside final furlong BF IP MIN 10 BF IP MAX 1000|
|6||7th||1.75||9||Humanitarian (USA)||3||95||Gosden, John and Thady||Havlin, Robert||33/1||62.39||9.05|
|slowly into stride, held up behind, outpaced over 2f out, ridden and stayed on into mid-division inside final furlong, never nearer BF IP MIN 38 BF IP MAX 1000|
|10||8th||SH||10||Norway (IRE)||3||104||OBrien, A P||Spencer, Jamie||33/1||50.00||7.60|
|led early, tracked leader, led again 3f out, soon ridden, headed 2f out, lost place over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong BF IP MIN 12 BF IP MAX 1000|
|8||9th||1||1||Line Of Duty (IRE)||3||114||Appleby, Charlie||Doyle, James||25/1||41.64||6.78|
|held up in touch, chased leaders 3f out, ridden 2f out, not quite pace to get on terms, gradually weakened inside final furlong BF IP MIN 25 BF IP MAX 1000|
|12||10th||1.25||4||Sovereign (IRE)||3||105||OBrien, A P||Beggy, P B||50/1||141.34||16.96|
|slightly hampered start, soon led, headed 3f out, ridden over 2f out, weakened final furlong BF IP MIN 100 BF IP MAX 1000|
|5||11th||2.25||3||Hiroshima||3||87||Ryan, J||Doyle, Brett||100/1||521.61||28.90|
|held up, always behind, outpaced over 3f out BF IP MIN 450 BF IP MAX 1000|
|2||12th||1.25||12||Bangkok (IRE)||3||104||Balding, A M||Sousa, Silvestre De||9/1||12.90||3.69|
|mid-division, driven over 3f out, soon ridden and unable to quicken, never on terms, weakened final furlong BF IP MIN 10.5 BF IP MAX 1000|
|13||13th||6||2||Telecaster||3||115||Morrison, H||Murphy, Oisin||5/1||7.61||2.74|
|mounted in chute and taken to post alone, raced keenly, tracked leaders, driven 3f out, soon ridden, lost place over 2f out, weakened and eased over 1f out BF IP MIN 5.5 BF IP MAX 1000|