Cheltenham Tuesday 10th March 1.30pm

Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+)

Distance: 2 miles ½ Furlong

Weights: 10st 13lb (4yo), 11st 7lb (5yo+), 7lb allowance for fillies and mares.

The first event of the Festival is the Supreme Novices Hurdle – a Grade 1 hurdle race which is open to horses aged four years and older. 

It is run over a distance of two miles and 87 yards on the old course and there are eight hurdles to be jumped. The winner of this race will hopefully be seen at the Cheltenham Festival for many years to come. 

Past winners include Douvan, Vautour and Altior who all won this race before going on to win at the following years festivals.

Last year’s race was won by Ruby Walsh on KLASSICAL DREAM (a 6/1 winning tip for us!).

Here are Cheltenham Supreme Novices Hurdle 12 Year Trends and Staticics.

• Age – Eleven of the last twelve winners were aged five or six. 
• Starting Price – In the last twelve years only two favourites have won but eleven winners have returned at odds of 12/1 or less. 
• Last Run – Ten of the last twelve winners won on their last run before Cheltenham , eleven of them ran within the last 80 days. 
• Course Form – Five of the twelve winners had at least one previous run at Cheltenham and just two of them had at least one previous win at Cheltenham. 
• Distance Form – All of the last twelve winners had at least two previous wins over between 1m 7f and 2m 1f. 
• Hurdle Form – Eleven of the last twelve winners had at least four runs over hurdles, and eleven of the last twelve winners had at least two wins over hurdles. 
• Official Rating – Eleven of the last twelve winners were rated 142 or higher. 
• Graded Wins – Ten of the last twelve winners had at least previous win in a grade 1 to 3 race. 
• Current Season – All of the last twelve winners had at least two runs in the current season, eleven of them had at least two wins in the current season.

Currently the leading contenders for the Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020 are:

• SHISKIN – Nicky Henderson trained gelding won a heavy ground Newbury novice hurdle very easily in January and took a Listed event at Huntingdon last time but what he beat there is open to question. Has winning bumper and PTP form on better going so should be able to handle whatever the weather brings.
• ABACADABRAS – Held by stablemate  ENVOI ALLEN on Fairyhouse running in December but he has since impressed when winning a Grade 1 novice at Leopardstown.
  
• ASTERION FORLONGE – PTP and bumper winner unbeaten in two hurdle runs winning both impressively including the Grade 1 Pharma at Leopardstown.
• FIDDLERONTHEROOF – Took no prisoners when winning the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown for trainer Colin Tizzard and jockey Robbie Power.
  

What a fascinating start to Cheltenham 2020 – all four of the current market leaders have a great chance on paper. But of course, it's how they perform on turf, not paper that matters, so let me see if I can unravel the form.

SHISKIN fell on hurdle debut but followed up with impressive wins last twice against inferior opposition. ABACADABRAS had no problem seeing off a small field in a Leopardstown Grade 1 and FIDDLERONTHEROOF did a similar Grade 1 demolition job in the Tolworth at Sandown both have place claims.

In my opinion the most impressive of the trials came from ASTERION FORLONGE who galloped strongly throughout at Leopardstown and accelerated off the final bend leaving the rest floundering in his wake.

My selection for the Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020 is: ASTERION FORLONGE 11/2

As this article is written in advance of the 2020 Festival, the likely contenders are expected to change as we get closer to Champion Day. The picture also starts to get much clearer as we approach the festival, with trainers starting to show their cards in the weeks leading up to Day 1. 

To get Keith’s very latest, up-to-date thoughts on the Day 1 card, and his final Day 1 tips, simply register as a FREE FRT member here, and Keith will email you the full Day 1 tips (including for this race) on the morning of Champion Day.

Keith’s wrote this for the 2019 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Ante-post favourite is Nicky Henderson’s ANGELS BREATH and the Seven Barrows trainer also has likely contenders with CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM and MISTER FISHER, the Nigel Twiston Davis trained AL DANCER is another with a shout. However, this is a race which the Irish contingent usually fare well in and the Willie Mullins pair of KLASSICAL DREAM and AMARON look likely candidates.

My selection for the race is KLASSICAL DREAM 8/1 each way, who outbattled stablemate AMARON at the Dublin Festival.

Result:

KLASSICAL DREAM won the race at a SP of 6/1

He travelled well virtually throughout the race tracking the leader before gaining the lead at the 5th flight and making the running for the rest of the race. He quickened clear on the run-in winning readily by 4½ lengths from THOMAS DARBY.

• 2008 Captain Cee Bee 7 Robert Thornton Eddie Harty 
• 2009 Go Native 6 Paul Carberry Noel Meade
  
• 2010 Menorah 5 Richard Johnson Philip Hobbs 
• 2011 Al Ferof 6 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls 
• 2012 Cinders And Ashes 5 Jason Maguire Donald McCain 
• 2013 Champagne Fever 6 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 
• 2014 Vautour 5 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 
• 2015 Douvan 5 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 
• 2016 Altior 6 Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson 
• 2017 Labaik 6 Jack Kennedy Gordon Elliott 
• 2018 Summerville Boy 6 Noel Fehily Tom George 
• 2019 Klassical Dream 5 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins

As these articles are written in advance of the 2020 Festival, the likely contenders are expected to change as we get closer to Champion Day. The picture also starts to get much clearer as we approach the festival, with trainers starting to show their cards in the weeks leading up to Day 1. 

To get Keith’s very latest, up-to-date thoughts on the Day 1 card, and his final Day 1 tips, simply register as a FREE FRT member here, and Keith will email you the full Day 1 tips on the morning of Champion Day.

Over the years, Keith has been a regular at the northern tracks attending countless race meetings and building up a network of contacts, and a portfolio of systems and strategies. 

He was one of the co-founders of Free Racing Tips all the way back in 2008, and his free tips are now backed by more than seventy thousand FRT members every single day.

“Thanks Keith – It’s great to be part of an amazing group of people all after the same thing, passing on tips to beat the bookies” 

Colin Parkinson, Harrow.

The FRT community love Keith’s attention to detail, knowledge of past races, and ability to pick horses…

“You offer some great tips, some fantastic outsiders tipped up as well. Most tipsters just put up favourites. Well done and keep up the good work”

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