Unravelling the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown

This Saturday 27th April sees the running of the last competitive jumps race of the 2018/19 season, The Bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase a Grade 3 National Hunt steeplechase which is open to horses aged five years and older. It is run at Sandown Park over a distance of about 3 miles and 5 furlongs (3 miles, 4 furlongs and 166 yards, or 5,784 metres), and during its running there are twenty-four fences to be jumped.

History

The event was established in 1957, and it was originally called the Whitbread Gold Cup. It was sponsored by Whitbread Brewers until 2001.

In recent years the race has been sponsored by At the Races (2002–03), Betfred (2004–07) and currently Bet365 (2008–)since 2008.

12 YEAR STATISTICS

  • Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 8 and 11.
  • Starting Price – A bad race for fancied horses no favourites have won in the last 12 years, 10 of the last 12 winners returned at a starting price of between 6/1 and 20/1 and the other 2 were 25/1 and 40/1.
  • Weight – 11 of the last 12 winners carried 11 stone or less.
  • Last Run – Only 3 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Bet365 Gold Cup , 11/12 winners ran within the last 46 days.
  • Course Form – 5 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Sandown, but none of the last 12 winners had won at Sandown.
  • Distance Form – All of the last12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 3 miles or further.
  • Chase Form – 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins.
  • Rating – 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 135 or higher.
  • Graded Wins – 5 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race.
  • Current Season Form – All of the last 12 winners had at least 3 runs in the current season, 6 of the had recorded at least one win during the current season.

Leading Contenders

Using the above statistics we can eliminate some of the fancied horses, STEP BACK and THE YOUNG MASTER are crossed off by virtue of have won at Sandown previously, TALKISCHEAP lacks a recent run and is too young, GIVE ME COPPER has only had 2 runs this season. I’m not saying none of those will win trends and statistics are there to be broken but here are the leading contenders with those taken out.

BEWARE THE BEAR 12/1 – On the upgrade, 2 wins from 3 runs this season including the Ultima at Cheltenham last time.

JOE FARRELL 14/1 – 2018 Scottish National winner, subsequently pulled up in this years Aintree Grand National after being subject to a fair old gamble, ran well ant Newbury to take second prior to that can bounce back.

ROCK THE KASBAH 14/1 – Brought down at Aintree but won the Bet Victor Handicap Chase in November and a reproduction of that run will see him involved.

ROLLING DYLAN 16/1 – Has been running with credit all season including a close second at Taunton last time, it will be no surprise to see him involved in this.

Conclusion

Not an easy race to unravel with several others with chances on top of those I have mentioned but my tentative pick is JOE FARRELL 14/1 each way connections will be keen to get back some of the money they piled on him in the Grand National.

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Yours in racing

Keith