fbpx

Keith’s Notebook 7th May 2020

Hi Everyone

How are things in lockdown land? I hope you are keeping safe and well.

Finally, things are moving on the European racing front Germany kicks things off today with a 12 race card at Hanover.

France is putting on some quality racing on Monday. A total of 1,069 horses have been entered for the fixtures at Longchamp, Toulouse and Compiegne which includes group race action.

As for Great Britain no doubt the picture will become clearer when Boris addresses the nation on Sunday. My gut feeling is Saturday 23rd May with behind closed doors meetings. The Guineas meeting at Newmarket has been pencilled in for early June. Ascot has always maintained that the Royal Meeting won’t budge from the original dates of 16th – 20th June and Epsom have outlined plans for a one day Derby / Oaks meeting on the 4th July.

Is this a good plan or is it all too soon? 

What I will be covering in this edition of Keith’s Notebook.

  • 3 more to Follow on the Flat
  • FAQ – What is a Lucky 15?
  • This Week’s Suggested Reading and Viewing.

 

3 more to Follow on the Flat

CORELLI – John Gosden trained 5-year-old gelding who went through 2019 without getting his head in front in five runs but was a close runner up in three of them, still looks well handicapped.

KING OF CHANGE – This lightly raced four-year-old colt from the Richard Hannon yard boasts some good form. Despite winning the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes in October and finishing runner up in the 2000 Guineas, I feel he is underestimated in many quarters and has the potential to pick up a couple of decent races this year at tasty odds.

OXTED – Carried a fair weight when winning the Portland handicap against older horses at Doncaster in September. Roger Teal is looking at Group race options for him next.

 

FAQ: What is a Lucky 15?

A Lucky 15 is a full-cover multiple bet where you make one selection in each of four different events. 

The bet includes 4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles, and 1 four-fold a total of 15 bets hence the name Lucky 15.

The Lucky 15 isn’t just for horseracing you can place a Lucky 15 on many different sports so if you like you can do a football Lucky 15 or a tennis Lucky 15 etc. You can also mix and match and place any combination of sports in your bets such as two horses and two football teams. 

What is an each-way Lucky 15?

On horseracing, a Lucky 15 can also be placed each-way in this case you effectively get two Lucky 15’s one on the horses to win and one for them to place. 

An each-way Lucky 15 consists of 30 bets.

How many horses do you need for a Lucky 15?

To place a Lucky 15 you require four horses in four different races. 

How much does a Lucky 15 cost?

A Lucky 15, because it is made up of 15 bets costs 15 times your unit stake. 

For example, a £1 win Lucky 15 costs £1 x 15 which equals £15.

An each-way Lucky 15, however, is 30 bets and therefore costs 30 times your unit stake.

How do I put on a Lucky 15?

To put on a Lucky 15 online go to the bookmaker of your choice and make your four selections, you should then see options under your bet slip with different multiple bets available. Select Lucky 15 and put in the unit stake, once you are happy that everything is right, then submit your bet.

To put on a Lucky 15 at a high street bookmaker most bookmakers have a dedicated slip for Lucky 15 bets, just put your selections, race times and meetings on this slip fill in the unit stake and total stake boxes and hand to a cashier. If you want best odds guaranteed (BOG), ask the cashier and if they are available for those races the slip will be marked up with the prices accordingly. If BOG is not available you can also take the current odds if they are available, otherwise, bets are settled at starting price (SP).    

Is Lucky 15 a good bet?

As multiple or exotic bets go the Lucky 15 is one of the better ones along with the Patent.

The full cover element of the bets means that even if just one of your selections wins you get at least part of your stake back so all is not lost.

Some bookmakers offer bonuses on Lucky 15 bets. 

If only one selection wins, as a consolation returns can be paid to double or even treble the odds. 

If all four selections win, a bonus of 10% or 20% can be added to your total returns depending on the bookmaker.

Is Lucky 15 better than Yankee?

It is a matter of preference but here at Free Racing Tips, we consider the Lucky 15 to be preferable to a Yankee for the following reasons.

If only one of your selections wins in a Lucky 15 you get something back and the bookmakers could give you the consolation of enhanced odds. Whereas with the Yankee only one winner equates to a losing bet.

If all the selections win in a Lucky 15 you could get bookmakers bonuses to increase your winnings. With a Yankee, there are no bonuses on offer.

How does a Lucky 15 payout?

To calculate the returns from a Lucky 15 you need to add 2 to the odds of each winning selection then multiply them together and multiply by the stake, then you subtract the unit stake.

Sounds complicated? Let me give you it in numbers.

For instance, you have placed a £1 Lucky 15 (costing £15) on three horses all at 3/1. Your three horses all win so you add 2 to each of these odds making 5.

Multiply the four together 5 x 5 x 5 x 5 = 625

Multiply this by the unit stake (1) 625 x 1 = 625

Minus the unit stake 625 – 1 = 624

Your return for your Lucky 15 bet is £624, take off the total stake of £15 and you have made a profit of £609. Your bookmaker may give you a 10% or 20% bonus on this win depending on their terms and conditions.

What if you only have 1, 2  or 3 winners?

In that case, leave the losers out of the calculation.

For 1 winner at 3/1 the calculation becomes 5 (3/1 + 2) x 1 (unit stake) = 5

Minus the unit stake 5 – 1 = 4. 

Your return for your Lucky 15 bet is £4, take off the total stake of £15 and you have made a loss of £11. Your bookmaker may settle this bet at double or triple the odds of the winner making reducing the loss on your 3/1 winner to £8 and £5 respectively.

For 2 winners both at 3/1 the calculation becomes 5 (3/1 + 2) x 5 (3/1 + 2) x 1 (unit stake) = 25

Minus the unit stake 25 – 1 = 24 

Your return for your Lucky 15 bet is £24, take off the total stake of £15 and you have made a profit of £9.

For 3 winners all at 3/1 the calculation becomes 5 (3/1 + 2) x 5 (3/1 + 2) x 5 (3/1 + 2) x 1 (unit stake) = 125

Minus the unit stake 25 – 1 = 124 

Your return for your Lucky 15 bet is £24, take off the total stake of £15 and you have made a profit of £109.

What if there is a non-runner in my Lucky 15?

Each non-runner in your Lucky 15 is placed into the bet calculation as 2 (0+2)

For example, 3 winners at 3/1 and a non-runner is calculated as 5 x 5 x 5 x 2  = 250 

Minus the unit stake 250 – 1 = 249 

Your return for your Lucky 15 bet is £249, take off the total stake of £15 and you have made a profit of £234.

With four non-runners you get your initial stake back but for the record, the calculation is 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16, minus the unit stake gives us 15 which is your original stake.

Does Free Racing Tips ever tip a Lucky 15?

Yes…. Every Saturday so long as there is racing in Great Britain or Ireland we send our members a Lucky 15.

This is posted on the TODAY’S TIPS page of our website. 

So long as you are subscribed to one of our mailing lists you will be informed when the “FREE SATURDAY LUCKY 15” is available. FREE TIPS BY EMAIL or FRT VIP CLUB

This Week’s Suggested Reading and Viewing.

Two more Youtube videos for you

  1. Harvey and Sue Smith – Legends of Horse Racing Sean Boyce interviews the straight-talking couple who trained Auroras Encore to Grand National glory in 2013. This is a brilliant interview I caught it on Sky Sports racing recently. 
  2. Barney Curley – Luck On Sunday – Racing TV – Fabulous interview with one of the shrewdest characters in racing  

Books

This week’s essential reading.

  1. Horsetrader: Robert Sangster and the Rise and Fall of the Sport of Kings – With individual thoroughbred racehorses costing millions of pounds each, the explosion in the bloodstock industry.

  2. A Bloody Good Winner: Life as a Professional Gambler – Dave Nevison is doing, every day, what thousands of punters dream of doing – living the dream of life as a professional gambler.

  3. From Royal Ascot to Portman Park – An often hilarious and sometimes poignant look at over thirty years of working in and around the betting industry through the eyes of Andy Dunn, a betting shop manager since 1978..

That is it for another week if there is anything you would like to see included in future editions of Keith’s Notebook please give us a shout.

Recommendations for the Viewing and Reading section are also welcome.

Yours in racing

Keith

ps. As always I am looking for questions for future editions of the Ask Keith podcast? please email your reply to [email protected]

FRT Gold

Get FREE VIP access - RIGHT NOW!

VIP membership usually costs just £4.95 per month, but if you join one of our partner bookies, we'll reduce that to £0.00 per month.

Which works out at £0.00 per day, or £0.00 per year. That's less than the cost of.. well EVERYTHING!

To get FREE VIP access, start by entering your best email address below.

(prefer to pay for access? No worries, you can do so right here.)

 

Thanks for that! - I've just sent you an email with instructions on how to claim your FREE access to Keith's VIP club (don't worry - there's only two simple steps!). Look out for this email (it's from [email protected], with the subject line "Please confirm your email address for free VIP tips") - It should arrive within a few minutes. If you don't get an email, please check your spam / junk folders, as emails sometimes end up there. If you still haven't got it after 60 minutes, drop us a line at [email protected], and we'll help you out. Cheers, Mel Finder of lost emails at FRT Towers.

Get your FREE copy of the Horse's Mouth Magazine

Cheltenham Special

All the tips you need for every race!

 

VIP members need not apply, you'll be sent yours automatically on the 4th of March

Please check your inbox and don't forget to check the spam folder

Get FREE Tips For All 36 Races From A PROFESSIONAL Horse Racing Tipster

 

"Thanks Keith – It’s great to be part of an amazing group of people all after the same thing, passing on tips to beat the bookies”
Colin Parkinson, Harrow.

“You offer some great tips, some fantastic outsiders tipped up as well. Most tipsters just put up favourites. Well done and keep up the good work”
John Woolley, Stockport

Please check your inbox and don't forget to check the spam folder

Get FREE Tips For All 36 Races From A PROFESSIONAL Horse Racing Tipster

 

"Thanks Keith – It’s great to be part of an amazing group of people all after the same thing, passing on tips to beat the bookies”
Colin Parkinson, Harrow.

“You offer some great tips, some fantastic outsiders tipped up as well. Most tipsters just put up favourites. Well done and keep up the good work”
John Woolley, Stockport

Please check your inbox and don't forget to check the spam folder

Register for your FREE Royal Ascot Preview Evening with our Professional Tipster Keith Bond.

 

"Thanks Keith – It’s great to be part of an amazing group of people all after the same thing, passing on tips to beat the bookies”
Colin Parkinson, Harrow.

“You offer some great tips, some fantastic outsiders tipped up as well. Most tipsters just put up favourites. Well done and keep up the good work”
John Woolley, Stockport

Please check your inbox and don't forget to check the spam folder

Get FREE Tips For All 36 Races From A PROFESSIONAL Horse Racing Tipster

 

"Thanks Keith – It’s great to be part of an amazing group of people all after the same thing, passing on tips to beat the bookies”
Colin Parkinson, Harrow.

“You offer some great tips, some fantastic outsiders tipped up as well. Most tipsters just put up favourites. Well done and keep up the good work”
John Woolley, Stockport

Please check your inbox and don't forget to check the spam folder