Godolphin’s 16/1 Guineas Winner?

This Saturday 4th May we have the first classic of the season the Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) over 1 mile on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course, the race is open to 3 year old colts and fillies, although generally only colts contest the race.

History

First run on 18 April 1809, the race was named after the original prize of 2000 Guineas (£2100).

By the 1865, the 2000 Guineas was established as one of Britain’s most prestigious races for the three year old generation. The five leading events for this age group, characterised by increasing distances as the season progressed, began to be known as “Classics”.

Leading jockey (9 wins): Jem RobinsonEnamel (1825), Cadland (1828), Riddlesworth (1831), Clearwell (1833), Glencoe (1834), Ibrahim (1835), Bay Middleton (1836), Conyngham (1847), Flatcatcher (1848)

Leading trainer (9 wins) : Aidan O’BrienKing of Kings (1998), Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Footstepsinthesand (2005), George Washington (2006), Henrythenavigator (2008), Camelot (2012), Gleneagles (2015), Churchill (2017), Saxon Warrior (2018).

12 YEAR STATISTICS

  • Age – This race is for 3yo’s only.
  • Starting Price – While 5 of the last 12 winners went off favourite it is also a good race for outsiders with 5 of the last 12 being priced between 8/1 and 40/1.
  • Last Run – 8 of the last 12 winners won on their last run, 9 of the last 12 winners had their last run over 189 days ago.
  • Course Form – 5 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newmarket, 4 of them had at least 1 previous win at Newmarket.
  • Distance Form – 5 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 1 mile, 4 of them had at least 1 previous win over 1 mile.
  • Flat Form – 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous flat wins.
  • Rating – 10 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 109 or higher.
  • Group Wins – 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win in a group 1, 2 or 3 race.
  • Current Season Form – 9 of the last 12 winners hadn’t run in the current season.

Leading Contenders

A good race for those making their seasonal so to narrow things down a but I ave eliminated those with a recent run out go MADHMOON, SKARDU and ROYAL MARINE, I’m not saying these can’t win to whittle things down you need to start somewhere.

TEN SOVEREIGNS 4/1 – Trained by Aiden O’Brien, course winner, unbeaten in three starts, highest rated in the race and the mount of Ryan Moore.

MAGNA GRECIA 5/1 – Also trained by the Ballydoyle master, 2 wins from 3, only defeat came over course and distance on quick going.

ADVERTISE 8/1 – Plenty of experience, 3 wins and 2 seconds from 5 starts, runner up to Too Darn Hot in the Dewhurst, a mile might be stretching him a bit.

AL HILALEE 16/1 – Godolphin owned and fancied by them for the Derby, supplemented for this race at a cost of £30,000, not seen since August but hit the ground running winning his maiden here and following up with a French listed race over a mile.

Conclusion

The Aiden O’Brien pair merit plenty of respect especially with his record in the race but my money is on AL HILALEE who is cracking value for an each way bet at 16/1, £30K to supplement might be a drop in the ocean to his owners but they will still be looking for a return on investment.

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Yours in racing

Keith